Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
346 ACUS02 KWNS 080555 SWODY2 SPC AC 080553 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 $$