Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
535 ACUS02 KWNS 130526 SWODY2 SPC AC 130524 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts, some to 80 mph, will be possible from Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the central Plains. Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the Northeast during the afternoon and early evening. ...Central Plains Vicinity... An upper shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley is forecast to pivot east/northeast toward the central Rockies by Friday evening. This feature will result in height falls across the central High Plains vicinity, aiding in the development of lee surface troughing across the High Plains. Meanwhile, a stalled surface front is expected to be oriented across northern KS into western NE. Southerly low-level flow along and west of the boundary will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across much of KS into eastern CO and western NE (with somewhat lower dewpoints extending into southeast MT). A strong EML will be in place across the region, and steep midlevel lapse rates atop a moistening boundary-layer will result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Thunderstorms are likely to initially develop in upslope flow closer to higher terrain, and gradually shift east/northeast into the High Plains of northeast CO. These initial storms will pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts given a deeply-mixed boundary-layer. With time, a low-level southwesterly jet is expected to increase toward 00z and thunderstorm clusters may organize into an east/northeast propagating bow/small MCS. This activity will pose a risk for severe gusts, with perhaps a couple significant gusts to 80 mph possible across southwest NE/northwest KS. The north and east extent of severe potential into the late evening/overnight hours should gradually diminish, especially across NE, as poor moisture return north of the surface boundary results in a stabilizing airmass. There is some potential that severe storms could persist along the stalled surface boundary into parts of eastern KS, but confidence in this scenario is too low. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along the surface trough extending into parts of the northern High Plains, as well as south into portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM. ...Northeast Vicinity... An upper trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to develop east/southeast across the region during the daytime hours. Strong heating of a seasonally moist airmass will result in modest destabilization by midday. Vertical shear will be sufficient to support organized cells and clusters. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary-layer to around 850 mb and steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated severe/scattered damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. The surface cold front should mostly move offshore by 00z. ..Leitman.. 06/13/2024 $$