365
ACUS03 KWNS 200717
SWODY3
SPC AC 200716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible from the upper Mississippi Valley
toward upper Michigan on Saturday. Damaging wind, hail and isolated
tornado potential may develop.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Model differences remain for Saturday in regard to the shortwave
trough forecast to move across the northern Plains and toward the
upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. However, there appears to be enough
potential to introduce a Slight Risk.

A surface low is forecast to deepen from SD into northern MN, with a
warm front will lifting north ahead of the low across MN and WI
during the day, and strengthening southwest 850 flow up to 50 kt.

Early day storms are likely in the warm advection regime from MN
into WI, with destabilization occurring behind this activity and
east of a cold pushing east across MN and IA. Moderate instability
and deep layer shear near the low and along the warm front would
favor supercells, with tornado and hail potential. Any bowing storms
may product damaging winds.

Farther south, moderate instability may develop along the front into
eastern KS and MO. Given the deep-layer shear orientation,
southeastward moving cells capable of hail will be possible.

..Jewell.. 06/20/2024

$$