412
ACUS03 KWNS 201927
SWODY3
SPC AC 201926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from west Texas
to central Missouri.

...Southern Plains to Missouri...
The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat across west TX, but the
forecast scenario remains similar. While some uncertainty remains
regarding the most favorable corridor, strong to locally severe
storms will be possible from the TX Permian Basin vicinity
northeastward into parts of Missouri on Sunday.

An upper trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday morning
will track east over the central/southern Plains. Around 40-50 kt
southwesterly flow will overspread northwest TX into KS/OK and MO
ahead of this feature. At the surface, a cold front will move
southeast across the Mid-MS Valley to southern Plains. Convection
may be ongoing across portions of the central/southern Plains to the
Mid-MS Valley Sunday morning, resulting in some uncertainty
regarding destabilization through peak heating. Nevertheless, a
seasonably moist airmass and favorable vertical shear will support
organized thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon/evening
along/ahead of the advancing cold front. Some risk for damaging
gusts and/or hail will accompany this activity from parts of west TX
into MO.

..Dean.. 09/20/2024

$$