890
ACUS03 KWNS 240708
SWODY3
SPC AC 240707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A tropical cyclone is forecast to move inland across northern
Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical cyclone related
tornadoes will accompany convection within the outer bands.

...FL/GA vicinity...

A broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been delineated for parts
of northern FL into GA as a tropical cyclone is forecast by the
National Hurricane Center to move inland Thursday evening into early
Friday. Southeasterly flow will increase over the region in response
to the northerly moving hurricane. While exact track, size, and
intensity of the storm is still somewhat uncertain, the favored
eastern semi-circle of the storm should bring some risk for
tornadoes to portions of the area. Forecast soundings indicated low
to mid 70s F dewpoints amid strong low-level shear and sufficient
instability to support rotation within low-top supercells associated
with the outer bands of the tropical system. The outlook area may
need to be refined in subsequent forecasts as storm track and
evolution of convective bands becomes more certain, but inclusion of
low-end probabilities appears prudent based on trends the past few
model cycles. Reference the National Hurricane Center forecast for
further details related to this potential tropical cyclone.

..Leitman.. 09/24/2024

$$