Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
880 ACUS03 KWNS 230706 SWODY3 SPC AC 230705 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 $$