Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
067 ACUS03 KWNS 250726 SWODY3 SPC AC 250725 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST WY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Montana into the western Dakotas on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across the central Plains. ...Northern Rockies into the northern/central High Plains... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across the northern Rockies during the day on Thursday, and into northern High Plains by Thursday night. A surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast MT during the day, and then move east-southeastward toward western/central SD. Low-level southeasterly flow will support moisture return into eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop by late afternoon across the western Dakotas into eastern MT, with at least modest destabilization possible farther west into central MT. Storm coverage is expected to increase across parts of western/central MT through the day, with development possible within the more-unstable environment across eastern MT and the western Dakotas by late afternoon into early evening. Increasing mid/upper-level flow will support sufficient effective shear for organized convection, including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. Some upscale growth may occur during the evening, with at least an isolated severe threat potentially persisting Thursday night as storms move eastward across the Dakotas. ...Central Plains... Elevated convection and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the central Plains. In the wake of the morning convection, a surface boundary is expected to move northeastward as a warm front, aided by a moderate southerly low-level jet. At least isolated storm development will be possible during the afternoon near the warm front, and also farther west near a diffuse dryline. Midlevel flow will be weaker with southward extent, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization within a moderately buoyant environment. A mixture of cells and clusters is expected, including potential for a couple supercells. With rather warm temperatures aloft, hail potential could be limited to some extent, but at least isolated hail may occur, along with strong to severe gusts. Some tornado threat could also evolve with any supercell near the effective warm front. ...Carolinas into Georgia... Moderate destabilization is forecast Thursday along/ahead of a cold front that is currently expected to be draped from south GA into parts of the Carolinas. A weak upper-level trough is expected to be in place over the region, and scattered thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon into the early evening. Depending on trends regarding the frontal position and strength of mid/upper-level flow over the region, severe probabilities may eventually be needed. ..Dean.. 06/25/2024 $$