676
ACUS03 KWNS 070723
SWODY3
SPC AC 070722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible
on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in
northern parts of the Intermountain West.

...Southern and Central High Plains...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the
central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor
of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico
northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms
may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains.
Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the
instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in
east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep
mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat.
Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the
late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal.

...Intermountain West...
A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern
U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that
a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the
Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable
airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in
southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated
severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during
the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2024

$$