609
ACUS03 KWNS 211923
SWODY3
SPC AC 211922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday.

...Synopsis...
The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be
absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into
the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will
overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is
in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move
slowly east through the period Monday.

...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region...
Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit
warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to
western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least
some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater
destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be
limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface
heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height
falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping
inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and
result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate
deep-layer shear.

A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak
instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large
hail or damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2024

$$