Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
823 ACUS03 KWNS 150730 SWODY3 SPC AC 150729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday mainly from the Dakotas into Minnesota. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Monday, a lead wave associated with early day storms will move across the eastern Dakotas and MN and toward Lake Superior by afternoon, with temporary height rises. Meanwhile, a front will gradually shift north as the air mass recovers, reaching eastern SD into central MN and northern WI by late afternoon. South of this front, a moist air mass will exist with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints and warming temperatures resulting in moderate instability. To the west, an upper trough will gradually move across the Rockies with strengthening mid and high level southwesterlies into the northern Plains. Winds aloft will be nearly parallel to the surface front, which should act as the focus for development late in the day and into the night. Given only gradual height falls, low-level warm advection aided by 50 kt 850 mb winds looks to be the main lifting mechanism. Forecast soundings show strong elevated instability developing north of the front, which appears favorable for hail. Any organized clusters in proximity to the boundary and moving parallel to it could perhaps produce locally damaging gusts as well. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2024 $$