844
ACUS03 KWNS 221934
SWODY3
SPC AC 221933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead
shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower
Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In
the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into
the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut
off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes.
Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak
to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a
weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time.

...Tennessee Valley...
Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The
location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question.
It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon
along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest
storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor
mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves
coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional
threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop,
severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will
continue to be monitored.

..Wendt.. 09/22/2024

$$