Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
960 ACUS03 KWNS 220653 SWODY3 SPC AC 220652 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians... An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday, however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning, associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 $$