Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
074 ACUS03 KWNS 160722 SWODY3 SPC AC 160721 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024 $$