676
ACUS03 KWNS 110730
SWODY3
SPC AC 110729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible
in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region
on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central
Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and
to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the
day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with
several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving
southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Lakes region.

The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from
northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois
where the models suggest that the strongest instability will
develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in
northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to
5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM
forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with
height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for
supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow
aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line
segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind
gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of
instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower
Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes
region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent.

...Central High Plains...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the
Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and
moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from
northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow
is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in
the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail
and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

$$