Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
056 ACUS03 KWNS 070732 SWODY3 SPC AC 070731 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern and Central High Plains... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain across parts of the central U.S on Sunday. Beneath the ridge, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from eastern New Mexico northward into east-central Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of the southern and central Rockies. Other storms may develop in the lower elevations of the southern High Plains. Forecast soundings late Sunday afternoon along and near the instability axis from Amarillo, TX northward to the I-25 corridor in east-central Colorado, have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 25 knots. This, along with steep mid-level lapse rates could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Strong wind gusts and hail would be possible as cells mature in the late afternoon. Any severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Intermountain West... A subtle shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northwestern U.S. on Sunday. Ahead of this feature, model forecasts suggest that a pocket of instability will develop across the northern part of the Intermountain West. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across this unstable airmass. Forecast soundings within the strongest instability in southeastern Idaho have MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 30 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in the 8 to 8 C/km range. This environment could support an isolated severe threat near and after peak heating, as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/07/2024 $$