865
FXUS63 KEAX 260914
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
414 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue this morning, with a few strong to
  severe storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- Another round of storms is possible this afternoon and
  evening, with the greatest threat for severe weather toward
  central Missouri.

- Quieter weather expected for Monday through Wednesday, with
  seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the
region. The initial round of storms from late Saturday evening
really hindered the convective environment, which has tempered
the severity of the successive rounds early this morning. That
being said, one severe warned storm with marginally severe hail
is ongoing along I-70 near Sweet Springs. Convection is still
occurring as far was as Alma to Wichita, KS as the front remains
over central Kansas. All this activity will continue to move
eastward through the next several hours, clearing east of the KC
Metro by around 7 AM, and completely through the remainder of
the county warning area by around 9 AM. Hydro concerns have also
been reduced, but for now have elected to hold onto the flood
watch.

Additional redevelopment of severe storms is possible by mid to
late afternoon toward central Missouri along the cold front.
Looks like if any of our area is impacted it would be the
Boonville/Sedalia area with storms quickly exiting eastward into
WFO St. Louis` area. A few scattered storms will be possible
further west behind the cold front by late afternoon into early
evening, with marginally severe hail being the primary threat.
Outside of the storm chances, high temperatures should range
from the mid 70s over NW Missouri to the lower 80s elsewhere.

Quieter weather arrives by Monday. A couple of mid/upper level
troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest,
pivoting toward the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday,
keeping us under northwest flow aloft sending a couple of weak
back door cold fronts through the region. This will help keep
temperatures near seasonal normals as well as keep humidity
levels relatively comfortable with dewpoints in the low to mid
50s through Wednesday.

As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the
western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return
flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Initial lines of +TSRA are progressing through the terminals
over the next couple of hours. Gusty winds are possible even
outside of the near thunderstorm environment. Behind the
initial +TSRA, RA with VCTS continue through sunrise. CIGs lift
to around 3000ft for the afternoon. Additional showers and
storms are possible during the afternoon; however, that activity
is expected to remain east of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ020-021-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Pesel