Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162323

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 112 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

A negatively-tilted mid to upper-level trough will cross overhead
the local area during the afternoon hours. At the surface, a stalled
warm front extending from east central Kansas to the southeast into
central Missouri will be the focus of afternoon convection as a
surface low intersects the boundary from eastern Kansas. Ongoing
morning and early afternoon rain showers have stabilized the lower
levels, though a dry slot ahead of the surface low has provided some
clearing, south of the KC metro. There is still some uncertainty
on whether or not the lower levels can destabilize sufficiently to
produce surface based convection this afternoon. However, there
is a conditional threat for strong to severe storm development as
the surface low treks eastward. The warm sector ahead of this
feature will be relatively narrow. Upstream obs reveal dew point
values in the mid-50s across northeast OK, which will eventually
advect north and into area across eastern KS/western MO. As this
occurs, there is the potential for an isolated tornado or two
across these areas. Ample low-level turning ahead of the surface
low will result in 0- 1km helicity values of 200 to 250 m^2/s^2.
The limiting factor may be the amount of surface based
instability realized as this setup continues to develop. Aside
from this risk, there is also the potential for elevated storms to
produce marginally severe hail as MUCAPE values approach 700 to
800 j/kg, with freezing heights beneath 8000 ft. All said, while
the setup remains conditional, there is a risk for an isolated
tornado or two across eastern KS and western MO, along with a
marginal support for large hail and strong winds. This will be a
small window of potential strong to severe storms both temporally
and spatially, as the surface low quickly pushes eastward this

Overnight lows will return to values in the 30s for most areas
tonight as a brief period of cold advection returns until the
late weekend. Saturday afternoon highs will peak in the mid 40s to
low 50s, with overnight lows slightly cooler than tonight. By
Sunday, another storm system will approach the area, similar to
today`s setup, but progged to position further south. The timing
of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms looks slightly delayed
compared to previous model runs. Generally looking to begin
Sunday evening into Monday morning. At this time, not anticipating
any severe weather with this event. Precipitation chances will
continue off and on through Tuesday as a subsequent mid-level wave
moves overhead. There is also the possibility of wintry
precipitation on the backside of the storm system, though
accumulations will be minor. A ridging pattern will then develop
through the mid-week, keeping conditions dry until the late week,
at which point rain shower and thunderstorm chances will return
heading into the weekend.


.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

VFR conditions are currently prevailing over the state line
terminals. This will quickly change as the center of a surface low
moves through; filling in with IFR CIGs later tonight. Otherwise,
expect breezy east wind to quickly change to the west or
northwest as the low moves across overnight. This will help keep
the low clouds in place across the region through much of the day,
with a return to VFR conditions towards the end of this TAF cycle.




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