215
FXUS63 KEAX 160742
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
242 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (<20%) for an isolated shower or storm this
  afternoon for areas east of Highway 65.

- Slight chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday
  across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with better chances
  (40-60%) for more widespread precipitation coming Friday night into
  the weekend.

- Temperatures remain 5-15 degrees above normal through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure extending from the
Great Lakes is in place. Aloft a broad area of low pressure extends
from the southeastern CONUS into the local area. This setup is
similar to the past two days where isolated to widely scattered
diurnal storms may be possible over the eastern CWA. However,
instability will be weaker with MUCAPE values between 500-800J/Kg,
and moisture will be a bit more lacking, shear as in past days will
be weak. Consequently, any storms that do develop will be fairly
isolated and short-lived. Temperatures will again be above normal
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight into Tuesday, a omega
block will develop in the upper level pattern with a closed low over
the central Appalachians and another closed low over the Great Basin
with upper level ridging developing in the central CONUS. Height
rises over the area will keep temperatures well above normal with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tuesday night into Wednesday the
closed low over the Great Basin will move to the northern High
Plains forcing a cold front into the central Plains. This front will
attempt to push toward the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday
however, this front will be trying to push into a area of
strengthening upper level ridging and with little forcing along the
front it will struggle to provide precipitation to the area. The
model blend continues to lower PoPs now just introducing 15-25%
chances of precipitation over eastern Kansas and extreme western
Missouri on Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation is looking less
likely during this midweek period. Highs Wednesday will again be in
the mid to upper 80s and rise further into mid 80s to lower 90s on
Thursday with further height rises across the area.

Thursday the upper low that moved into the northern High Plains
continues to push north into Canada as another closed low replaces
it over California. The upper low over the Appalachians remains in
place as does the ridging over the central CONUS. By Friday, the
upper low over the Appalachians does finally begin to push
northeastward as the upper low over California pushes into the Great
Basin region. This will force lead shortwaves towards the area that
will begin to break down the ridge over the central CONUS and bring
chances for thunderstorms perhaps as early as Friday night. Several
lead shortwaves ejecting out from the upper level trough as it moves
from the Great Basin into the western Plains Saturday into Saturday
night will continue storm chances before the upper level trough
finally moves into the local area on Sunday bringing continued
storms chances for what should be a unsettled weekend. Highs Friday
will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Saturday, storms will keep highs in the upper 70s to mid 80 with
more seasonable temperatures behind a cold front on Sunday with
highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru this TAF cycle as just a few-sct
high clouds are expected thru the pd. Winds will be out of the
SE around 05kts before increasing to around 10kts with ocnl
gusts to 15-20kts btn 17Z-00Z. Aft 00Z, winds will weaken and
diminish to 5-10kts while remaining out of the SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73