849
FXUS63 KEAX 030822
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, but storms
should remain sub-severe.

- A more well defined chance of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow
evening along a cold front approaching from the northwest. Storms
will be capable of producing large hail and straight line damaging
winds.

- Cooler and drier pattern setting up for the second half of the
  weekend with northwest flow prevailing.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Low confidence forecast remains in the short term with unstable
atmosphere remaining, though there is not a clear sign of what, if
anything, will ignite convection across the area.  The broad pattern
is depicted with zonal flow across the lower 48, with weak embedded
short waves in the flow. Convection that formed overnight into the
Central Plains has weakened as it has worked east into a stronger
cap and weaker sheared environment. Outflow from this convection has
move into NW Missouri, with a few scattered showers developing ahead
of the boundary across north central Missouri. Have also seen a few
isolated storms develop in south central Kansas. While one of these
storms weakened, the northern storm has shown upscale growth over
the last hour or so as cluster interacts with gravity waves.  If
this area of convection remains on it`s current trajectory, could
see storms approach eastern Kansas towards sunrise.  While the
atmosphere remains unstable with roughly 2000 J/kg of CAPE, the flow
in the mid-levels of the atmosphere remains fairly weak, making it
questionable if the storms will be able to maintain themselves as
they attempt to work farther east. With weak mid-level shear, expect
any storms to largely remain below severe limits.

With ample cloud debris around today, solar heating could be
hindered slightly and have kept forecast highs in the lower 80s
regionwide.

Forecast remains unclear going into tonight convectionwise with
unstable atmosphere remaining with broad 20-30 knot low level jet
across the plains.  There aren`t any obvious ways to work around
weak capping inversion near 750 mb, but with lingering boundaries
can`t entirely rule out the potential for a storm or two overnight.
Again, with weak flow in the midlevels, shear looks to be fairly
limited so any storm that does develop looks to largely remain below
severe limits.

Shortwave moving into the Pacific NW this morning is expected to
move into the Plains on Tuesday.  The attendant cold front with this
system is expected to shift south, and by late in the day serve as a
focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development. CAPE values ahead
of the front are expected to be in the 1-2K range, but with
increased shear, could see some stronger storms produce severe
weather.  Expect scattered storms to evolve fairly quickly into a
liner system, progressing southeast with time.  With initial
discreet storms, could see large hail being the main severe threat
before evolving into a severe wind threat.  Ensemble mean suggests
0.5-1" precipitation amounts with this system, heaviest across
eastern KS/western Missouri with lesser amounts farther east.

Behind the front, area remain under the influence of northwest flow
as trough develops over the Great Lakes region. Fairly substantial
ridge develops across the western US, but is not really ably to
expand east until at least early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with bkn-ovc high clouds
expected thru 10Z-11Z. Btn 10Z-14Z a decaying line of storms is
expected to affect the TAF sites however cig/vis restrictions
are not expected with bkn-ovc cigs around 7kft. Behind the line
of storms, cigs are expected to be bkn-ovc around 4kft thru 19Z
aft which just high clouds are expected. Winds will be out of
the south thru the pd btn 7-12kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73