948
FXUS63 KEAX 092319
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The warmest conditions of the season thus far are expected
  Wednesday and thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s.

- There is a chance for severe storms Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface high pressure is building into the area from the northern
Plains this afternoon. This surface ridge will remain in control
over the area through tomorrow night. This will bring very pleasant
conditions with lows tonight and tomorrow night in the 50s and highs
tomorrow in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Highs Tuesday will rise into
the low to mid 80s as the surface ridge of high pressure slides to
the east and WAA get underway across the area. Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening a upper level shortwave will move across the
Upper Midwest forcing a weak cold front towards the area. Models
suggest the front washes out northwest of the area however a few
showers and storms may reach northwestern MO. Wednesday, height
rises coupled with increased WAA will allow for one of the warmest
days of the season thus far with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Wednesday night, the area will move under the influence of a
upper level ridge building across the southern Plains. A upper level
shortwave will round the ridge into the Upper Midwest skirting the
area bringing the slight chance (< 20%) for a storm across northern
Missouri.

Warm air advection continues across the area Thursday with highs
rising into the low to mid 90s. The main hazard will occur Thursday
night as a strong upper level shortwave an associated cold front
move through the region. Strong instability and deep layer shear
will be in place making severe weather a possibility. Storms will
exit the area Friday morning as surface high pressure builds into
the region from the northern Plains. This will cool temperatures a
few degrees with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. Another round of
storms will be possible again on saturday as a upper level trough
moves from the eastern Rockies in the central Plains, weakening as
it does. This coupled with dry air in place may cause storms to
struggle to reach the area. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper
80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High pressure will keep conditions mostly clear for the next 24
hours. May see a few cumulus clouds develop Monday afternoon
with bases around 10kft. Winds generally around 10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Krull