221
FXUS63 KEAX 090517
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1217 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop mainly
  south of I-70 later this evening through overnight. Some
  strong to severe storms are possible with damaging winds,
  hail, and heavy rainfall.

- Localized flash flooding and river flooding is a concern with
  potential for additional rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches
  south of I-70.

- Drier and cooler conditions expected early next week with
  next chance for unsettled weather later in the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Isolated showers have moved across the areas from Olathe around 9 AM
and have already moved west of Sedalia as of 2 PM. Radar and
satellite imagery show the very light showers starting to move into
northern Missouri in Atchison county and should move across the MO
and IA border through the early afternoon. However the main concern
are for the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms  in the later
evening from 7 PM to 4PM. Certainly enough instability with CAPE
values potentially exceeding 2000-3000 J/kgK. Some of these
thunderstorms may be severe with main threats of damaging winds and
hail, there is a low chance of isolated tornadoes (SPC showing 2%
across southern areas of west central Missouri) This would be across
area from Harrisonville and southward to Butler.

The bigger concern will be with the antecedent moisture conditions
and with the recent heavy rainfall from last night storm activity
with 2 to 3 inches in some areas for rainfall amounts extending from
Atchison county KS southeast through Wyandotte and Jackson counties
in Missouri. The low level jet will be shifting from southerly to
more southwesterly which will steer storms that develop to more of a
easterly track across the Ozarks. Instability has remained lower
than anticipated which has lowered the immediate severe threat and
with the showery activity and cloud cover through the day has led to
the uncertainty for how far north but should develop and stay along
boundary, which appeared to have a frontal boundary along St Joseph
through Kirksville.  However my thinking that the storms will
develop along the boundary down near Harrisonville as southerly
winds. Still significant threat will be the flash flooding and river
flooding potential as the storms develop and move east for a
training event along the boundary. Precipitable water values are
above 1.5 to 2 inches.  These storms should end by Sunday morning.
Expect high temperatures tomorrow afternoon to be a bit cooler and
less humid than the past couple days, with temperatures ranging in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dew points should also drop into the mid
50s to lower 60s by tomorrow afternoon.

As looking into early next week the high builds southward tomorrow
bringing cooler  as discussed with the dew point temperatures, less
humid conditions to the start the week. The overall pattern looks
fairly quiet until Tuesday when a large trough moves across the
upper Midwest. This may may bring some precipitation chances to the
area. As of now, it keeps rain to the north. This fairly quiet
weather pattern persist until the end of the week which shows the
most substantial chances for showers and storms over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions prevail through most of the period. Rain showers are
anticipated within the first few hours of the TAF period, with model
guidance keeping the most intense rain south of the sites. Ceilings
associated with rain showers do have the potential to briefly lower
to MVFR thresholds, but uncertainty remains with this possibility.
Skies are expected to clear starting around 15Z Sunday morning.
Clearing is expected to start earlier for STJ. Winds will be out of
the northeast around 5-10 knots, becoming slightly more
northeasterly as the TAF period progresses.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MK
AVIATION...Hayes