119
FXUS63 KEAX 221735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated Sprinkles Possible Today

- Thunderstorms Thursday Night

- More Precipitation Chances Through the Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

H5 trough that brought active weather to the lower Missouri River
Valley to Upper Midwest has moved out of the area, and the trailing
cold front has pushed well southeast of the forecast area. There is
a secondary short-wave trough currently moving across the Central
Plains this morning that is producing a line of light
showers/sprinkles and moving eastward. Drier air has been filtering
in behind the cold front and there is not much forcing at the
surface. That has kept the activity over north-central Kansas this
morning light. This short-wave will eventually gets here by the mid
to late morning hours, and the HRRR along with a few other CAMs have
produced light precipitation. Therefore have added slight chance POPs
across portions of the area this morning into the early afternoon.
Overall QPF amounts are expected to be just a few hundredths of an
inch. For a threshold of 0.10 inches, GEFS and other ensemble suite
probabilities are under 10 percent. Aside for these light showers,
expecting a mild day across the area. Modest height rises behind the
exiting weak short-wave should lead to clearer skies, and allow a
surface anticyclone to develop across the Central Plains toward the
lower Missouri River Valley. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s for
most of the afternoon. There is another short-wave trough moving
across the lower Mississippi River Valley that may bring some
moisture convergence into southwestern and southern Missouri today,
but heaviest activity will be concentrated around the Interstate 44
corridor. Have added in some slight chance POPs in our furthest
southern counties for a few hours, but QPF amounts should remain
light, with very low probabilities for reaching 0.10 inches.

Thursday, a closed-low begins to progress into the Northern Rockies
with a secondary vort max ejecting toward the Central Plains. During
the afternoon on Thursday across our area, this increases H5 heights
and allows a thermal ridge axis to move through. The dCVA over the
Front Range will result in surface lee cyclogenesis from the Front
Range into the High Plains throughout the day Thursday, and will
switch low-level flow southerly Thursday afternoon into the lower
Missouri River Valley. WAA will allow temperatures to bounce back
into mid 80s. The bulk of the afternoon is expected to remain dry,
though some isolated showers could develop if stronger isentropic
ascent is realized. Current CAMs develop convection in eastern
Kansas during the afternoon as the localized vort-max and associated
H5 height falls move eastward. For our area, ensemble probabilities
for precipitation beginning to increase after 00z and through the
overnight hours, as Q-vector convergence steadily increases. Initial
storms for our area may struggle a bit, as a strong cap is expected
to be in place. If there is enough clearing earlier in the day,
perhaps boundary layer destabilization could erode the cap and lead
to a more favorable setup for strong to severe storms. 30 kts of 0-
6km bulk shear may be enough to help organize some activity if it
can get going. It will not be until later in the overnight hours
Thursday into Friday morning when the cold front moves through that
there will be enough forcing to push through the cap. 06z CAMs this
morning depict a strong QLCS moving eastward from Kansas and
Nebraska after 03z. By the time it gets to our area, it will start
to outrun a favorable instability axis, and likely begins to weaken.
This may hold together long enough to bring a few 60 MPH wind gusts
to the western portions of the forecast area. Like with other recent
QLCS and MCS events, will need to watch radar trends and determine
if cold pool dynamics may help to give the system an extra push. For
this event, most of our CWA is highlighted in the SWODY2 marginal
risk, with our far southwestern counties clipped by the slight risk.
Heading into the rest of the day Friday, the cold front pushes
through, and will continue at least rain shower chances with
isolated thunderstorms along the remnants of the previous QLCS/MCS.
This may bring between 0.25 and 0.50 inches of rainfall through
Friday afternoon as the cold front passes through. Amongst NBM
members, currently holding onto probabilities between 40 and 50
percent for exceeding 0.25 inches of QPF through Friday afternoon.
In the SWODY3, areas east of Interstate 35 are in the marginal risk
for a severe storms along the cold front. Ahead of the front in the
afternoon, there may be some modest destabilization throughout the
warm sector that in the presence of strong convergence could lead to
some stronger updrafts. However, the stronger vertical shear will be
mainly behind the front, which may make it difficult for robust
organization of convection. Most of the low-end severe potential for
Friday early afternoon will depend on how the system behaves
overnight before arriving in the area.

Heading into the weekend, more short-wave perturbations are expected
to move through at 500mb that will present additional opportunities
for rain showers and thunderstorms. There may be some opportunities
for severe weather, though stronger signals currently point to
threats being south and east of our area. Should the forcing with
with in flow shift northward a bit, may present more active weather
for our area. Throughout the region, probabilities for at least 0.10
inches of rainfall over a 24 hour period are generally at least 20
percent, and times approach 50 percent. Temperatures fluctuate
between the mid 70s and mid 80s as the series and troughs and ridges
move through. Box and whiskers plots of temperatures through next
week show a larger amount of spread, indicating uncertainty in the
timing of individual waves that will bring precipitation. Amongst
deterministic guidance, Sunday appears to be a favorable day for
heavier precipitation with stronger vort max moving across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period. A few clouds could
build in during the afternoon hours followed by additional
clearing overnight. Winds will be light and predominantly out of
the west-northwest during the early evening hours before
becoming southeasterly after 01Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Hayes