731
FXUS63 KEAX 130536
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1236 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and muggy conditions starting today continuing tomorrow.
  Triple digit heat index values anticipated Thursday.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday evening into
  Friday morning. Main threats include very large hail, damaging
  winds, and localized flooding.

- High temperatures look to consistently remain in the 90s from
  Saturday through mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

In the upper levels, there is currently a zonal pattern over the
region with west-northwest flow over the area. At the surface, there
is a trough over the ND/MN border with high pressure to the
southeast over the Ark-LA-Tex area. Winds are out of the south-
southwest pushing warm, moist air from the Gulf over the area.
Expect warm, muggy conditions today as high temperatures reach the
low 90s and dew point temperatures reach the mid 60s. Tomorrow heat
index values continue to increase as the surface high remains to our
southeast and continued southerly flow pushes warm, moist air over
the region. High temperatures will be even warmer than today`s
reaching the mid 90s. Heat index values will range to 100-105
degrees Fahrenheit as the dew point temperatures creep into the 70s.
A heat advisory has already been issued and is in effect from 18Z
Thursday to 01Z Friday.

A mid level shortwave is expected to move to the northeast of the
area over IA. At the surface, the associated frontal boundary is
expected to push south into the area Thursday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
boundary. Due to the environment being very unstable, strong to
severe storms are expected. As previously mentioned, 70 degree dew
point temperatures, CAPE values exceeding 4,000 J/kg, and bulk shear
values around 40 knots suggest the potential for very large hail and
damaging winds. PWAT values are well above 1.5 inches which show the
potential for heavy rainfall. Localized flooding could be an issue
if storms last in duration or begin to train.

Friday, ridging pushes into the area from the southwest keeping
temperatures warm. There will be a few chances for showers and
storms continuing through the weekend. High temperatures in the
90s are expected to return Saturday and persist through next
Wednesday. There is a potential for additional heat advisories
to be issued, but we will continue to monitor conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most of the daytime hours
tomorrow. Some diurnal CU and gusty SW winds precede developing
RA/TSRA during the evening. Several uncertainties remain as
storm development is expected to be sparse in coverage, at least
initially. Therefore, the broadscale timing of precipitation
potential has been outlined and will be refined in subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ001-002-004-011>014-020>023-028>031-037-
     038-043.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel