Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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408 FXUS63 KEAX 180720 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 220 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and humid conditions expected the next several days with highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the week - Shower and thunderstorm activity expected Tuesday night into Wednesday for northern portions of the forecast area. Amounts up to 2 inches could be possible in some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Little has changed in the forecast with hot and humid conditions still expected the next several days. Stout ridging along with surface high pressure is situated over the eastern US with troughing over the west. We remain caught in the middle with ample warm air advection and southerly flow thanks to the ridge to our west. Temperatures are expected to rise to the low to mid 90s for another day. Heat indices will top out in the mid to upper 90s. Like Monday, winds will be breezy again with gusts up to 30 mph possible this afternoon. By the afternoon/evening, our attention will turn to a shortwave trough shifting to the northeast through the northern High Plains. This will send a frontal boundary toward our area along with increasing shower and thunderstorm potential. Storm will develop across Nebraska and Iowa and shift southeast into the evening, eventually making it into far northern Missouri overnight. For the most part, storms are expected to decrease in intensity as they move toward our area, so widespread strong storms are not expected with this system. As far as rainfall amounts, our far northwest will see highest amounts with potential for as high as 2.5 inches. Shower and thunderstorm activity may linger into Wednesday afternoon but will gradually decrease over time. As the front moves through, highs will vary greatly across the forecast area Wednesday with northwestern MO only in the low to mid 90s with the remainder of the area still near 90 degrees. For the rest of the week mainly dry conditions are currently expected, however nearby shortwaves will decrease certainty. As far as temperatures go, highs on Thursday will bounce right back to the the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures are expected to be on a warming trend for the later half of the week into the weekend with mid 90s expected for Friday and Saturday. A better chance for rainfall looks to hold off until Saturday night as a shortwave slides north of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions look to remain for the duration of the TAF period. Occasional winds gusts as high as 30 mph are possible for the next 24 hour period. There is a potential for MVFR ceilings Tuesday morning, however they were left out of the TAF due to uncertainty on cloud base height. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...Collier