024
FXUS63 KEAX 292309
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather conditions and near seasonal temperatures
  expected today

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday evening
  into the start of next week
- Minor localized flooding risk Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper level ridging to the west has resulted in high pressure at the
surface over the Great Lakes Region. This high pressure has extended
down into our area and has resulted in quiet weather conditions
defined by easterly wind gusts to the teens and limited cloud
coverage. High temperatures for today are expected to range from the
upper 70s-low 80s.

Thursday morning, the ridge moves over the area through the day
keeping the afternoon quiet. A trough develops to the northwest of
the area over the MT/Canada border extending down into the Four
Corners Region. A shortwave develops out ahead of the trough which
could lead to showers late Thursday evening into overnight Friday. A
few isolated thunderstorms may develop but remain weak with CAPE
less than 500 J/kg, and overall low severe threat with the lack of
wind shear. With PWATs hovering around 1.5 inches heavy rainfall is
a possibility. As a result, there are some minor flooding concerns.

The aforementioned trough to our west is expected to move over the
area through Friday. At 700mb, a low develops to our southwest over
the KS/OK border and pushes northeast. Flow at 850mb turns southerly
as the low approaches the area. Southerly flow will transport warm
moist air from the Gulf, but with a saturated column, increases in
CAPE will be minimal with weak lapse rates. A few isolated
thunderstorms may develop throughout the widespread rain showers,
but lack of wind shear will prevent organization and suppress
the severe threat. However, there is another chance for heavy
rainfall with PWAT values exceeding an inch. If training showers
develop or showers last longer than expected, minor localized
flooding is possible.

The active pattern continues with multiple chances for rounds of
showers and storms through the weekend. Expect above seasonal
temperatures for the start of next week into the mid week. For the
second half of next week mid to upper level ridging builds into the
area which could lead to a continue of warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with increasing high
clouds expected thru 15Z-17Z when bkn cigs around 5kft will
affect the TAF sites. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of
the E around 10kts before veering to the SE aft 11Z while
remaining around 10kts. Pcpn looks to affect the TAF sites just
after this TAF pd however, faster model solutions bring showers
and storms to TAF sites as early as 22Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73