Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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986 FXUS63 KEAX 192023 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 323 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms this morning. Strong to severe storms are unlikely with this early activity. - Another round of storms is likely late this afternoon to evening. Strong to severe storms are possible with this activity. - Widespread and much needed rainfall is likely this weekend with multiple rounds of showers and storms likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Expected thunderstorms and showers through early morning but much more active and on-going into the early afternoon than anticipated. There was some decent wind downburst signatures warrantying issuance of severe thunderstorm warning. Received downed tree reports and with brief power outage in Leavenworth county area. Main concern today was the length of shower and thunderstorm activity, as this would limit the redevelopment that is anticipated later this evening. However, satellite imagery and radar showing clearing convective activity, this will allow for plenty of afternoon heating. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT shows lower 80s in areas of recent storm activity from KC metro to St Joseph areas, with upper 80s to lower 90s once elsewhere. As the afternoon progresses and and warming continues the combination of the anomalously high moisture and warmer condition will result in the unstable air mass by the early evening hours. Again the main concern is the early activity but current analysis maps shows the still decent SBCAPE, although the better chances across north-eastern MO. While the main threat from the the thunderstorm that develop will be damaging winds and quarter size hail, there is the potential for an isolated storm to produce tornado, while the likelihood is very low (<5%). The main time period for development is expected to still remain 00z-02z across the KC Metro (although 20-30% probabilities) and northeastern MO 02-06z with better chances (30-50% probabilities). Tomorrow looks relatively drier conditions in the day and early evening with a lull in weather activity until late Friday night from 06z to 12Z Saturday. Then the weekend is more active with rounds of precipitation in much needed drought conditions. The shower/thunderstorm activity moving across the area on Friday night into Saturday morning have decent confidence (30 to 60%) across northern areas of KS and MO and with precipitation chances increasing and spreading across the entire CWA overnight with the frontal and short wave activity. Another round of storms looks likely Saturday night into Sunday as a stronger shortwave beings to move into the Plains. The probabilities of heavy rainfall continue to increase as both the NBM and the LREF guidance both show probabilities accumulated precipitation exceeding 1 inch at 80-100% through Monday morning. Storm of precipitation from Saturday morning through Monday morning indicating areas in northern MO of 3 to 4 inches and gradually 1-2 inches further south into central MO. At this time the the concern for flash flooding threat is relatively low with the current drought conditions and headwater flash flood guidance in a 3 to 6 hour period ranges from 3 to 6 inches. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Thunderstorms continue to redevelopment along a line between KSTJ and KMCI. Have VCTS for KSTJ and placed -TSRA for KMCI for the time period 18z-20z to account for the development. There may be periodic VIS reduction with TS but confidence (10-20%) for VIS restrictions for the airports directly and may be brief IFR conditions. Still anticipate some clearing in the early afternoon, this will be main contingency on the amount of heating possible for this afternoon. There is definitely uncertainty in the models for the afternoon convection but still anticipating potential severe convection after 00z. The main concern will be TAFs for exact timing or VIS restriction for thunderstorms, for now placed VCTS due to this uncertainty from 00z-04z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MAK AVIATION...MAK