Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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161 FXUS63 KEAX 160943 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 443 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance (<20%) for an isolated shower or storm this afternoon for areas east of Highway 65. - Slight chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with better chances (40-60%) for more widespread precipitation coming Friday night into the weekend. - Temperatures remain 5-15 degrees above normal through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 This morning a surface ridge of high pressure extending from the Great Lakes is in place. Aloft a broad area of low pressure extends from the southeastern CONUS into the local area. This setup is similar to the past two days where isolated to widely scattered diurnal storms may be possible over the eastern CWA. However, instability will be weaker with MUCAPE values between 500-800J/Kg, and moisture will be a bit more lacking, shear as in past days will be weak. Consequently, any storms that do develop will be fairly isolated and short-lived. Temperatures will again be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight into Tuesday, a omega block will develop in the upper level pattern with a closed low over the central Appalachians and another closed low over the Great Basin with upper level ridging developing in the central CONUS. Height rises over the area will keep temperatures well above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Tuesday night into Wednesday the closed low over the Great Basin will move to the northern High Plains forcing a cold front into the central Plains. This front will attempt to push toward the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday however, this front will be trying to push into a area of strengthening upper level ridging and with little forcing along the front it will struggle to provide precipitation to the area. The model blend continues to lower PoPs now just introducing 15-25% chances of precipitation over eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri on Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation is looking less likely during this midweek period. Highs Wednesday will again be in the mid to upper 80s and rise further into mid 80s to lower 90s on Thursday with further height rises across the area. Thursday the upper low that moved into the northern High Plains continues to push north into Canada as another closed low replaces it over California. The upper low over the Appalachians remains in place as does the ridging over the central CONUS. By Friday, the upper low over the Appalachians does finally begin to push northeastward as the upper low over California pushes into the Great Basin region. This will force lead shortwaves towards the area that will begin to break down the ridge over the central CONUS and bring chances for thunderstorms perhaps as early as Friday night. Several lead shortwaves ejecting out from the upper level trough as it moves from the Great Basin into the western Plains Saturday into Saturday night will continue storm chances before the upper level trough finally moves into the local area on Sunday bringing continued storms chances for what should be a unsettled weekend. Highs Friday will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Saturday, storms will keep highs in the upper 70s to mid 80 with more seasonable temperatures behind a cold front on Sunday with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 443 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just a few-bkn high clouds expected thru the TAF cycle. Winds will be out of the SE btn 5-10kts before increasing btn 16Z-18Z to around 10kts with ocnl gusts 15-20kts. Winds will subside aft 00Z-01Z while veering to the SSE btn 5-10kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...73