Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 041420
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-041500-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
920 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  08/24/2024  - 11/22/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  19   31   13   21   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  45   58   42   48   10   12
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  35   51   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Turner Bridge KCK   41.0   47.5   54.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
23rd Street KCK     33.0   54.0   55.0 :   8   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph           17.0   21.0   27.0 :  18   36   <5   20   <5    6
Atchison            22.0   27.0   30.0 :  11   30   <5    8   <5    5
Leavenworth         20.0   24.0   30.0 :   8   29   <5   13   <5   <5
Parkville           25.0   28.0   35.0 :  <5   17   <5    8   <5   <5
Kansas City         32.0   35.0   49.0 :  <5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
Napoleon            17.0   25.0   30.0 :  33   52    7   12   <5   <5
Waverly             20.0   29.0   31.0 :  34   52    6   14   <5   <5
Miami               18.0   28.0   29.0 :  37   57    9   16   <5   10
Glasgow             25.0   27.0   32.0 :  34   44   26   40   14   26
Boonville           21.0   30.0   34.0 :  35   45   14   18   <5   <5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  29   33   28   29   12   22
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  <5   16   <5    5   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  16   24   16   23   <5   <5
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  29   38   15   18    6    6
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  19   32   12   21    7    8
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  23   38    9   16    7    7
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :  13   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
Bannister Road Ka   34.0   40.0   42.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway Kansas   27.0   36.0   38.0 :  17   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street Kansa   26.0   33.0   37.0 :  10    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Colorado Avenue K   31.0   36.0   37.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive Kan   33.0   39.0   43.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street Kansa   33.0   36.0   38.0 :   8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street Kansa   30.0   35.0   40.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  23   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  50   51   47   49   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  46   55   28   37   18   15
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  42   56   30   53   12    9
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  48   64   24   35    6    7
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  36   43   31   31   <5   <5
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  52   48   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  43   42   33   36   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Trenton             27.0   31.0   34.0 :  23   31   11   13   <5   <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  24   33   21   23   20   21
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  24   28   20   20   <5   <5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  32   37   28   34   23   27
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  48   50   46   49    8   11
Brunswick           19.0   27.0   33.0 :  40   43   18   21   <5   10
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :   9   26    7   10   <5   <5
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  33   37   10   27    7   11
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  18   42   13   28   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  59   68   21   48   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie          28.0   45.0   48.0 :  43   46   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Cygne            25.0   30.0   36.0 :  46   51   26   37   <5   <5
Trading Post        27.0   29.0   40.0 :  34   42   29   39   <5    6

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 08/24/2024  - 11/22/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.3    2.4    6.8   13.5   24.7   29.1   29.8
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.3    2.4    9.2   16.5   20.8   23.0   26.1
Tonganoxie            1.9    4.9   10.2   19.7   25.0   26.6   28.1
:Kansas River
De Soto               5.5    7.1    7.7   11.6   15.8   19.3   22.8
Turner Bridge KCK     4.8    6.2   11.1   15.7   22.2   28.1   34.8
23rd Street KCK      11.2   12.2   15.6   18.8   24.1   29.2   35.6
:Missouri River
St Joseph             7.8    8.3   10.0   13.1   15.5   19.7   20.4
Atchison              9.9   10.4   12.4   15.0   17.7   22.1   22.9
Leavenworth           4.9    5.5    8.1   11.6   14.5   19.8   20.4
Parkville            10.3   10.8   13.1   16.0   20.1   22.1   23.4
Kansas City          10.5   10.9   13.7   17.1   22.8   26.3   30.8
Napoleon              7.5    8.0   10.5   14.1   18.8   22.8   25.7
Waverly              11.5   11.8   14.2   17.6   22.7   27.7   29.3
Miami                 8.3    8.5   11.9   15.9   22.3   27.7   28.5
Glasgow              11.9   13.2   17.3   21.1   27.1   33.4   34.8
Boonville             8.4    9.5   13.0   17.3   23.7   30.8   31.2
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               6.0    6.0    7.8   11.1   21.7   26.1   29.0
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     3.9    3.9    5.1    7.5    9.7   18.5   20.1
:102 River
Maryville             6.2    6.2    8.6   10.2   12.4   16.0   17.6
Rosendale             3.0    3.0    4.3    9.8   13.3   19.4   22.0
:Platte River
Agency                6.3    8.0   11.5   15.4   21.6   25.9   30.8
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.5   12.5   13.8   14.9   19.1   24.5   27.2
:Platte River
Sharps Station        5.0    5.8   11.4   15.1   24.0   29.4   35.5
Platte City           0.1    1.9    9.2   12.4   19.5   23.7   31.7
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    26.0   26.1   26.6   27.4   31.2   37.1   38.3
Bannister Road Ka     6.5    7.2    8.7   16.1   24.3   29.8   35.9
71 Highway Kansas     5.1    5.9    7.8   16.7   24.2   30.0   34.1
63rd Street Kansa     8.4    9.2   11.2   16.7   22.0   26.1   29.4
Colorado Avenue K     8.2    8.9   10.6   15.9   20.1   24.3   29.6
Stadium Drive Kan     7.5    8.0   10.4   17.1   23.3   28.6   33.9
17th Street Kansa    10.3   11.1   14.5   20.1   25.9   30.5   35.0
12th Street Kansa     5.6    6.9   10.3   15.0   20.5   25.9   30.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.7    4.8    6.0   10.0   15.3   23.7   24.3
:Crooked River
Richmond              5.5    6.0   11.5   20.1   24.1   27.1   27.3
:Thompson River
Trenton               9.6    9.6   10.3   16.0   23.8   31.8   32.4
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           1.9    1.9    4.4   11.2   24.5   37.8   41.5
Gallatin              3.0    3.2    6.9   11.9   25.4   35.8   37.5
Chillicothe           3.6    4.0    8.6   17.3   34.1   40.2   40.6
Sumner                6.9    9.4   15.1   25.8   34.9   39.0   40.6
Brunswick             5.0    5.6    8.7   16.2   23.3   28.2   31.8
:Chariton River
Novinger              4.6    4.6    4.6    5.7   16.2   19.4   23.7
Prairie Hill          4.6    4.6    4.6    5.5   16.5   18.9   22.3
:South Grand River
Urich                 4.1    4.7    8.8   13.2   21.6   27.1   27.9
:Big Creek
Blairstown           10.7   13.9   17.7   21.0   22.8   24.8   27.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           13.1   15.1   18.0   25.0   29.9   37.5   39.1
La Cygne              4.4    7.0   11.0   18.2   30.3   33.6   34.2
Trading Post          3.9    6.8   11.2   19.7   30.5   37.0   39.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 08/24/2024  - 11/22/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.3    2.3    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    1.7    1.5    1.5
Tonganoxie            1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto               3.8    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
:Missouri River
St Joseph             6.8    6.5    6.2    5.6    5.2    5.0    4.0
Atchison              9.0    8.7    8.5    8.1    7.7    7.6    6.8
Leavenworth           3.8    3.4    3.2    2.8    2.3    2.1    1.1
Parkville             9.3    8.9    8.5    8.0    7.6    7.2    6.6
Kansas City          10.0    9.7    9.1    8.7    8.3    7.9    7.8
Napoleon              7.0    6.7    6.2    5.8    5.6    5.1    5.0
Waverly              10.9   10.6   10.1    9.8    9.7    9.2    9.0
Miami                 7.6    7.4    6.9    6.4    6.3    5.8    5.3
Glasgow              11.3   11.1   10.4   10.0    9.9    9.4    9.2
Boonville             7.7    7.4    6.8    6.5    6.3    5.9    5.8
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.7    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     3.6    3.5    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2
:102 River
Maryville             6.1    6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0
Rosendale             3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Platte River
Agency                5.9    5.9    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.5   12.5   12.5   12.4   12.1   12.0   12.0
:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.0    3.9    3.4    3.1    2.9    2.7    2.7
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    25.1   25.1   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0
Bannister Road Ka     4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
71 Highway Kansas     2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0
63rd Street Kansa     4.8    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4
Colorado Avenue K     4.2    4.1    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.8
Stadium Drive Kan     5.3    5.3    4.9    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
17th Street Kansa     6.0    6.0    5.9    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6
12th Street Kansa     1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.6    1.6
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Crooked River
Richmond              5.5    5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2
:Thompson River
Trenton               9.0    8.5    8.3    8.3    8.2    8.2    8.2
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           1.7    1.3    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
Gallatin              2.7    2.4    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Chillicothe           3.5    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1
Sumner                6.1    6.0    5.5    4.5    4.0    4.0    4.0
:Chariton River
Prairie Hill          1.1    1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:South Grand River
Urich                 2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown            4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           12.7   12.7   12.6   12.6   12.5   12.5   12.5
La Cygne              4.2    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1
Trading Post          3.5    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.

$$