863
FXUS66 KEKA 162213
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
313 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Critical fire weather conditions for southern Lake
County this afternoon through Monday evening. Breezy to windy
west to northwest this afternoon and evening, with strongest winds
late afternoon and evening. Dry weather is expected to continue
through the foreseeable future. Interior temperatures continue to
drop below seasonal normals into early next week. A gradual
warming up from Tuesday, with another heat possible late in the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad upper-level trough centered over British
Columbia and northern Washington will continue to swing another
shortwave across Northern California this afternoon and evening.
This feature is bringing mid to high level moisture across much of
the area. Otherwise, dry weather is expected to continue with
some cooling of interior high temperatures. Breezy west to
northwest winds are already observed this afternoon. Winds are
forecast to strengthen late this afternoon and evening. Gusts
from 25 to around 35 mph are likely this afternoon, especially in
southern Lake ans Mendocino counties. HREF and NBM continue
suggesting gusts at 40 mph or greater at Cow Mt and east and south
of Cobb in Lake County. With afternoon RH values forecast to
reach the low 20 to teens this afternoon, there exists a slight
risk for rapid spread of grass fires today in Lake county. See
Fire Wx section for more details.

Otherwise, slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with
clear skies should result in chilly overnight temperatures once
winds decouple, especially for the northern portion of the
forecast area. This will promote temperatures dropping to low 40s
to mid 30s across the interior early Monday morning. A brief
morning frost is expected in the colder valleys of southern
Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties as this shortwave progresses
east of the area, with building high pressure over the great
basin. This will promote light, drying NE winds early Monday
morning across much of the interior. A Frost Advisory is now in
effect from 8PM tonight through 9AM Monday in response for those
areas. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to slowly trend back toward
climatological normals next week, with longwave troughing continuing
aloft well into the work week. Afternoon highs may creep back up to
above normal late this week as ridging noses in from the west.


&&

.AVIATION...All terminals are VFR this afternoon, with gusty
northwest winds being reported at both ACV and UKI. CEC may also see
this evening. Winds will ease after sunset at all the terminals. VFR
conditions are expected to remain at the terminals overnight, with
the only uncertain terminal being ACV, where there is some potential
for low clouds overnight anchored around Humboldt Bay and the
surrounding mountains. These could bring some brief MVFR ceilings to
ACV before sunrise. VFR conditions are once again expected Monday
after sunrise, with breezy northerly winds returning to all the
terminals in the afternoon. JB


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds have come in a bit lower than previous
model runs suggested today, though winds remain breezy. Peak gusts
of around 25 to 30 knots in the expansion fan south of Cape
Mendocino along with steep wind waves of 7 feet at 7 seconds are
expected for the rest of the day. Outside the expansion fan, the sea
state is dominated by a northwesterly swell filling in at around 4
feet at 9 seconds. Both winds and waves will increase Monday
afternoon, with gale force gusts up to 40 knots forecast in the
expansion fan south of Cape Mendocino. Winds are forecast to ease
below gales after sunset Monday. JB



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to windy west to northwest winds are
expected to develop today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected
across Lake, Trinity, and southern Mendocino counties, and a chance
(20 to 30%) for gusts to reach above 40 mph at Cow Mtn and around
Cobb in Lake County. In addition,  Dry conditions with low
daytime RH`s in the 20`s and teens are expected to continue this
afternoon. Winds are forecast to weaken late tonight and turn NE,
ushering in a drier airmass and possibly driving RH values into
the low teens on Monday. The strong winds and low humidity will
yield an elevated fire weather threat through Monday evening,
particularly for the south and east side of Lake County. A Red
Flag Warning remains in zone 264 (southern Lake), from today
through Monday evening, primarily for the possibility of rapid
spreading grass fires. Tuesday will be another dry day with
daytime RH`s in the teens, with moderate to locally poor humidity
recoveries. However, winds are expected to be light up to 12 mph
sustained. Elevated fire weather threat will most likely on
Tuesday due to the low daytime humidity.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PDT Monday for CAZ106-108.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ264.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for
     PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png