Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
979 FXUS66 KEKA 212215 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 315 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue to gradually settle in today with continued gusty north winds along the coast. Heat will peak early next week with above average temperatures pushing out even along the coast. && .DISCUSSION...It has been a sunny day across Northwest California today as a high pressure continue building across the west coast. The exception has been along the Mendocino Coast where some stratus lingered over the beaches through the day. Breezy northwesterly winds continues over the coastal headlands, but not as strong as yesterday where gusts up 40 mph where observed. Winds are anticipated to diminish this evening, while breezy offshore east-northeast flow component redeveloped. The strongest offshore flow are anticipated to be primarily over the higher terrain in Del Norte County, with gusts up to around 35 mph. The upper ridge will continue to amplify with a 850 mb temperatures warming through early next week. Temperatures will peak on Monday and Tuesday when the warmer inland valley highs from 95 to 105 F. These temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal and will bring areas of Moderate Heat Risk Monday and Tuesday. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Even along the coast will warm up to low 70`s with the offshore winds on Monday. Ensembles and deterministic models suggest the aforementioned ridge will begin to breakdown and slowly shift eastward on Tuesday as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A cutoff low and a cold front will approaches the area Wednesday morning. These will bring some light wetting rain right along the Redwood Coast. Essentially no model members show any rain more than a few tenth of an inch. Most model ensemble member show no precipitation beyond coastal drizzle with trough just bringing generally cool temperatures and increased clouds cover, especially with a marine layer along the coast. ZVS && .AVIATION...Clear skies are forecast for all terminals through this TAF period. Patches of low clouds and fog will most likely confined to the Mendocino coast. Localized stratus may develop offshore around Humboldt Bay early Sunday morning and impact KACV with brief IFR ceilings after 14Z. Very marginal low level wind shear remains possible for small craft after surface winds decouple and robust NE-E winds to 30kt develop a few thousand feet above mean sea level this evening and overnight. KUKI will remain clear through the period, however Sonoma county stratus may creep northward into Hopland around daybreak Sunday. DB && .MARINE...Strong northerly winds with gusts up to 40 knots are forecast to continue over the northern outer waters. Another region of strong northerly wind is expected to occur in the lee of Cape Mendocino where a few gale gusts to 35 kt are highly probable. This northerly wind flow pattern with steep northerly wind waves will continue through the weekend. Steep waves will ease up by Tue of next week as the thermal trough weakens and shifts inland. A mid period NW swell will begin to build around mid week, followed by increasing northerlies and building wind waves toward latter portion of the week. DB && .FIRE WEATHER...Elevated to locally critical conditions are occurring over the higher terrain in zone 203, 204, 264 and 283 this afternoon. Low humidity mostly from 15 to 25 percent across the interior along with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Offshore flow will redeveloped later in the evening with the strongest winds over the higher terrain in Del Norte County. Building heat and high pressure will continue to enhance fire weather conditions with daytime highs in the mid 90s to low 100s and minimum RH in the teens. Overnight recoveries will continue to worsen at mid and high elevations with recoveries of 20 to 40 percent though Tuesday morning. Daytime winds will continue to be mostly gentle and terrain driven, but low pressure of the central california coast combined with high pressure will help enhance night time northeast flow at high elevations. Northeast wind gusting up to 25 mph should be expected a high elevations late each night early this week. This risk will be focused in the usual areas of Del Norte and Lake Counties but will also include the usually calmer ridges of Southern Humboldt and northern Mendocino Counties. Generally more mild conditions will build in late in the week with increasing marine influence. /ZVS & /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-455. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png