303
FXUS66 KEKA 222204
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
304 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry weather is expected in the interior Sunday
through Tuesday, followed by more moderate temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday. Coastal areas will remain much cooler.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratus almost completely eroded this afternoon.
New stratus has already been forming offshore north of Cape Mendocino
and will likely begin to advance onto the North Coast and into
the coastal river valleys this evening. Marine layer will deepen
later tonight with another NW influx of shallow moist air and
possible coastal drizzle and fog tonight into Sunday morning.
Surface pressure gradients tighten behind the front and breezier
N-NW winds with gusts to around 25 mph are expected around
Humboldt Bay. Coastal headlands may have stronger gusts to 40 mph,
based on HREF probabilities greater 50%.

Otherwise, it will remain hot in the interior valleys Sunday
through Tuesday. Another trough in westerly flow will result in
some cooling Wed and Thu. Also, gustier diurnally driven west to
northwest winds are expected again in the interior with this
trough Wed and Thu. Also, mid layer humidity with a nebulous
disturbance aloft originating from the subtropics may bring a some
high level humidity to the southern portion of the area on
Tuesday; southern Mendo and Lake. Potential for dry thunderstorms
remains quite low at the moment; 1 to 3% chance. PWAT anomalies
(above 200%) are forecast to stay well to the south of the area as
an upstream trough keeps the forecast area in relatively dry
westerly and southwesterly flow aloft.

NBM remains consistent with high temperatures "cooling" below
normal on Thu as a 500mb trough moves across the Pacific NW. NBM
probabilities for rain Wed through Thu are not zero, but no more
than 10% for Del Norte and northern Humboldt. Some coastal drizzle
and a few hundredth`s are not completely impossible as a decaying
front generates a shallow push of moisture. Chance for a tenth or
more is near zero. A warming trend for the interior will most
likely commence next Friday with above normal temperatures returning
next weekend. DB

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR stratus blanketed the coast this morning through
the early afternoon. Sun was finally able to breakthrough today,
however, bringing VFR conditions along most of the coast this
afternoon. Such clearing is destined to be short lived, however.
Inconsistent IFR ceilings and visibilities will most likely start to
return early this evening with NBM and HREF showing a 90% chance of
LIFR ceilings around Humboldt Bay by 9PM. Brief clearing is again
possible tomorrow afternoon (30% chance) though increasing high
pressure and inversion strength will make the chances lower than
today. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will persist for the
interior with normal summer conditions. /JHW

&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds have generally decreased today with
moderate gusts above 21 kts only persisting in the outer waters and
around Cape Mendocino. Short period seas have followed suit with the
northern waters dropping below 6 feet tonight.

Calmer conditions will be short lived, however, with a northerly
push ramping wind back up Sunday. This will bring gusts and steep
short period seas back throughout all waters, but especially in a
fan south of Cape Mendocino where gale force gusts should be
expected. Steep seas up to 10 feet will also fan south of the Cape
and throughout the southern outer waters.

Northerly winds will again ease off early this week with generally
moderate gusts by Monday evening. By that point, only the southern
waters will most likely support short period seas steep enough for a
small craft advisory. Besides wind waves, a minor northwest swell of
5 feet at 11 seconds will augment the sea state starting early
Monday morning, likely slightly delaying the general calming trend
in the overall sea state, especially in the northern waters. /JHW

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ455-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday
     for PZZ470.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png