Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
829 FXUS66 KEKA 201150 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 450 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected for the foreseeable future. Interior temperatures will warm up toward the end of week with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees in some interior valley locations Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will then slowly moderate Sunday and into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Shortwave troughing greatly deepened the marine layer this morning, and is currently over 2500 ft per the McKinleyville profiler. As a result, stratus is protruding well inland and there has been persistent light drizzle. The depth of the marine layer and a strengthening inversion may hold in the low clouds today. Remaining consistent with the ongoing pattern, 500 mb heights will then begin to rise again in advance of the next trough. Before the troughing returns, inland temperatures will rise through Saturday. Heat risk is forecast to increase to moderate levels by Friday and persist in Saturday when high temperatures are forecast to peak with inland valley highs to exceed 100. The ridge will then begin to weaken on Sunday as a NE Pacific trough slides to the north and temperatures slowly trend down into next week. Smoke from the Sites Fire in Colusa County will continue to affect air quality in the surrounding counties, mainly Lake. HRRR smoke guidance expands the smoke farther west into Trinity and Mendocino counties today from steering winds aloft. /JJW && .AVIATION...A deepening marine layer persists along the coast this morning along the coast. An upper level low is leading to variable ceiling heights around 1000ft or so with momentary spots of mist and drizzle bringing down visibilities. IFR conditions are forecast to last through the day along the coast due to this stubborn layer of stratus. Coastal terminals have possible chances of turning overcast skies into broken layers, yet confidence of this occurrence is low at the moment and is not referenced in the most recent TAF issuance. Inland, calm mornings winds will evolve into afternoon winds while some wildfire smoke will cover some of the area in the supper levels. && .MARINE...Northerlies are forecasted to remain breezy today, but will remain in small craft criteria for the northern and souther outer waters. Conditions warranting small craft conditions are forecast to be in the inner waters, yet coverage will remain sparse, thus no official advisory will be published. Winds will peak in the afternoon with the highest winds (still below gale conditions) occurring in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Gale force winds have high probabilities to return to the outer northern and all the southern waters (100% of >40mph gusts) Friday afternoon. More confidence on coverage will be available as higher resolution model guidance becomes available. Seas will remain steep through the week due to the winds, especially in the outer waters. A pair of two foot, long period westerly and southwesterly swells (respectively) will continue diminish as the weekend approaches, leaving the sea state to be driven by local wind waves. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png