Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
359 FXUS66 KEKA 182227 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 327 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected for the foreseeable future. Interior temperatures begin a slow warming trend through the work week with temperatures approaching 100 degrees in some interior valley locations Friday into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Dry weather conditions are expected persist through the foreseeable future as dry air remains in place within the mid- levels of the atmosphere over Northwest California. Visible satellite imagery shows cirrus (high-level) clouds spreading from northwest across the area this afternoon, while stratus near coastal Humboldt finally scatter out. Temperatures has been running 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared with yesterday`s reading as a weak high pressure builds over the area, with inland highs in the mid 70`s to mid 80`s. Tonight, stratus are expected to redeveloped around Humboldt Bay and vicinity. Light offshore flow is expected again tonight into Wednesday. Smoke from the Sites Fire in Colusa Co. is forecast to spread over Lake County overnight through Wednesday morning. HRRR smoke dispersion model indicates more waves of smoke from Sites Fire spreading form east-southeast on Thursday. Troughing the next couple days will keep temperatures over the interior near normal through Wednesday. By Thursday the trough will begin to break down and 850 mb temperatures will warm across the interior allowing some interior valleys to approach 100 degrees Friday into Saturday. This will bring a moderate heat risk for portions eastern Mendocino, Trinity and Lake counties. All while this is occurring, northerly winds and increasing low-level moisture at the coast will result in increasing chances of coastal stratus through the week with temperatures remaining near normal at coastal sites. Ensemble cluster analysis and deterministic models shows the high pressure flatten on Sunday as a upper-level trough moves toward the Pacific NW. An associated weak, dry cold front sweep east- southeast across Northern California. Thus, temperatures will moderate a few degrees across the interior late in the weekend into early next week but still remain several degrees above normal. /ZVS && .AVIATION...Stratus has been stubborn early this afternoon, but is slowly diminishing. All terminals this afternoon will be VFR, with NNW winds peaking at 15 to 20 knots. Winds are expected to diminishing by sunset. Tonight, stratus is expected to make a return and be more widespread than today`s. Stratus is expected to develop around Humboldt Bay and ACV, then advect north to CEC, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. Stratus looks likely to stay offshore most the day Wednesday, but the coastal terminals could still be affected periodically. UKI is expected to stay VFR through Wednesday. JB && .MARINE...Northerlies will continue to ease into Wednesday. However, moderate to locally fresh northwesterlies persist over the outer waters. Afternoon fresh to locally strong northerlies are expected south of Cape Mendocino on Wednesday. Generally light gentle breeze is expected nearshore, with a period of southerlies north of Cape Mendocino tonight. Fresh breeze spread across the outer waters and early Thursday as a thermal trough develops inland, with locally strong winds downwind Cape Mendocino. Steep short period seas will continue to promote hazardous conditions for small craft primarily in the outer zones for the rest of the week. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png