053
FXUS66 KEKA 281157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
457 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough will move through the Pacific
Northwest bringing substantial moisture and cooler temperatures
to Northwest California today and tomorrow. This trough is
forecasted to migrate out of the area by Wednesday evening
allowing a ridge to build back. This ridge should bring us warmer
temperatures and a first look at true summer-like conditions,
especially for Friday when temperatures are expected to peak.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratus has made its return to our coastline from the
Oregon boarder down to Cape Mendocino and reaching up the Eel River
up to the Trinity/Humboldt/Mendocino tri-county area. An upper level
trough entering our region has the possibility to allow just enough
vorticity for this cloud layer to give us some sprinkles of drizzle,
yet no substantial precipitation accumulation is expected , maxing
out at a hundred of an inch near the Ferndale, Fortuna, and up to
Rio Del within the Eel River Basin. Our morning`s pattern is
forecasted to repeat again tomorrow morning as well. The clouds
along the coast are expected to persist at least somewhat throughout
the day keeping temperatures mild. Whereas inland, a layer of high
elevation clouds will prohibit solar heating making temperatures
peak at the high 70s with breezy northwest winds in the valleys.

A ridging pattern will develop by mid week and gradually warm the
region through the end of the week, particularly the interior. For
the interior, Thursday morning is showing some breezy easterly
winds, especially in eastern Lake and Mendocino counties. Coastal
afternoon wind gusts are possible as well, with probabilities for
wind gusts above 25 mph at 60 and 50 percent along most of the coast
for Thursday and Friday, respectively. After this brief taste of
summer, model ensemble members show agreement of the ridge slowly
weakening throughout the weekend possibly bringing conditions back
to normal. DS

&&

.AVIATION....An upper level trough is moving into the Pacific
Northwest. This has started to lift the marine layer and ceilings
have lifted to around 1000 feet on the north coast.  A few high
clouds have started to move across the area as well. The stratus is
expected to be continue to lift through the day with conditions
becoming VFR or near VFR in the afternoon. Tonight the HREF shows a
return of stratus and low clouds. Probabilities of ceilings below
1000 feet increases to 50 percent by around 04Z. These elevated
probabilities persist through nearly sunrise when they rapidly drop
Wednesday morning. Increased mixing will likely clear skies on
Wednesday but bring gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. MKK

&&

.MARINE...An upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest
will keep winds lighter through tonight. Winds will be slightly
stronger south of Cape Mendocino and have extended the small craft
advisory remains in effect there. Some wind driven waves persist in
the southern waters of 3 to 6 feet. In addition there is a wave 5
feet at 9 seconds and a new swell around 2 feet at 13 seconds. These
are expected to combine by this afternoon.

Wednesday winds are expected to pick up quickly through the day.
Gale force gusts are expected to start in the mid afternoon in the
southern waters and expand to the northern outer waters. So have gone
ahead and issued a gale watch to highlight this. For now have the
gale watch going through Thursday evening. This may need to be
extended into Friday but it looks like winds will diminish be
Saturday. Another question is the northern inner waters. For now
have held off on issuing a gale watch, one will likely be needed
Thursday afternoon. The waves will be dominated by the steep wind
driven seas and these are expected to peak around 12 to 14 feet on
Friday. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ455-
     475.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for PZZ455-475.

     Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     evening for PZZ470.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png