Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
341 FXUS66 KEKA 132239 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 339 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather expected through the weekend. A cooling trend is expected to continue on Friday and moderate to near seasonal levels this weekend. Much stronger westerly to northwesterly winds are expected in the interior this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...GOES-West satellite imagery shows continue shifting eastward, while an upper level trough centered over the Gulf of Alaska. Stratus has scattered out with the daytime heating, although stratus near-coastal locations are expected to persist with the sea breeze for the North Coast. Inland temperatures has been running up to 7 degrees cooler compared to yesterday`s reading. A weak and dry cold front will move over the area early Friday. Inland temperatures are expected to continue cool down additional 5 to 10 degrees on Friday, and then moderate through the weekend with temperatures near normal. Stratus and marine layer depth will probably increase on Friday in response to a shortwave through that is forecast to move into the Pac NW on Saturday. Slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with clear skies should result in chilly overnight temperatures once winds decouple. There is a chance (20-40%) for brief morning frost in the colder valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties this weekend and early next week. Prime concern heading into the weekend is potential for strong and gusty westerly to northwesterly winds in the interior, particularly in Lake, Trinity and Mendocino due to the low RH`s. See fire weather section for more details. Peak gusts from 25 to 40 mph are probable, with lower probabilities for gusts to 40-50 mph. Strongest winds will most likely occur on Sunday evening with the passage of a 500mb shortwave trough. Windy conditions in the interior will probably continue into Monday. This trough is forecast to be relatively dry and right now the potential for any precipitation is quite meager, 5-10% chance for Del Norte late this weekend. Models diverge on the track of the 500mb trough. Minuscule amounts of rain is not impossible for Del Norte and northern Humboldt on Monday. Wetting rain chances are meager with NBM probabilities for greater than 0.10in no more than 13% for Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. NBM has temperatures remaining near seasonal normals early next week, followed by gradual warming mid to late next week. /ZVS&DB && .AVIATION...IFR ceilings and reduced visibility are expected to gradually improve by the late afternoon at KACV and KCEC. Overcast skies will scatter out as the cloud base lifts with mixing and stronger winds developing. This will be short lived as HREF suggest LIFR ceilings as low clouds return to the coast by 6z or so. No LLWS expected during this TAF period yet winds will be build before sunset at KCEC, around 0z - 2z. KUKI will have prevailing VFR conditions with northerly winds picking up tomorrow afternoon. /EYS && .MARINE...Gale force winds gusting up to 40 knots continue in the Southern inner and outer waters through the weekend. The sea state remains hazardous with 10 to 13 ft waves at 8 to 10 seconds. Steep square waves will persist but diminish in wave height, particularly in the northern outer waters. South of Cape Mendocino, gales force gusts will continue with the expansion fan into Friday. Currently, the expansion fan drifts more into the southern inner waters Friday, which could lead to the return of gales near-shore, but these will subside below gales by Friday evening. Gales in the southern outer waters will pause Friday evening and return by Saturday afternoon. The sea state will continue to be characterized by northerly wind waves and mid-period northwesterly swells through the weekend. /JB /EYS && .FIRE WEATHER...West to northwest winds are expected to develop on Friday, and then strengthen across the interior this weekend. The strongest west to northwest winds gusting from 25 to 40 mph will most likely occur on Sunday and then continue into Monday, with the strongest winds expected Sunday evening. Very dry conditions with low daytime RH`s in the 20`s and teens are expected to continue through the foreseeable future, primarily in Lake and Trinity counties, and interior Mendocino. Overnight RH`s are expected to increase slightly during the weekend. However, there will be no doubt be poor recoveries where light to moderate ridge level breezes persist each night. The strong winds and low humidity will yield an elevated fire weather threat Sunday morning through Monday afternoon, particularly for the south and east side of Lake County. Have to hoisted a Fire Weather Watch for elevations below 2000 feet in zone 264 (southern Lake). /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Fire Weather Watch from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon for CAZ264. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Friday for PZZ455. Gale Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png