585
FXUS66 KEKA 082155
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
255 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain seasonable through the weekend
with increasing marine influence near the coast. A moderate heat
wave will build early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough is currently crossing over head, covering the
area with clouds at multiple different levels. With the passage of
this trough, highs will continue to remain cool today with interior
valleys peaking around the mid 80s, very close to seasonal normals.
Increase moisture and upper level support will allow very slight
chance (around 20%) of isolated thunder to persist today over the
Trinity Alps, though much weakened surface heating will reduce
chances compared to the last few days. These relatively
climatologically normal conditions will continue through the
weekend.

Long rang ensembles are supporting increased forecast confidence on
a brief warm and dry period early next week due to a shallow upper
level ridge forming over the western US. The nature of this future
weather system will make warming weak and short lived. However, heat
will be here, no matter how short lived this system may be. NBM is
currently showing a 25% on Monday and a 58% on Tuesday of peak
temperatures over 100F at Ukiah Municipal Airport. The heat should
peak on Tuesday, specifically in Mendocino and Lake counties, with
widespread moderate HeatRisk, and locally major HeatRisk in Lake
County. In addition to the heat, there remains essentially no chance
of any wetting rain through next week across the entire region of
northwest California. In the later part of next week, model guidance
is supportive of upper-level flow evolving into a zonal flow,
bringing temperatures and conditions back into what is seasonally
appropriate, or normal. DS

&&

.AVIATION...Coastal terminals...IFR ceilings have been a little
stubborn to scatter out at CEC this afternoon. However, coastal
stratus are expected to continue lifting and mixing out. Expect
VFR/MVFR ceilings with an increase in mid to high level clouds
later this afternoon and evening. Low clouds will reformed this
evening and tonight along the Redwood Coast with IFR to LIFR
ceilings and mist or patchy fog. Surface winds from WNW at 5 to 15
kt along the coast with occasional stronger gusts. After 09/04Z,
winds diminish and become S at around 5 kt. Late tonight through
Sunday morning, an approaching weak shortwave trough will
destabilize the marine layer and conditions will become variable
at the coastal terminals.


UKI...Prevailing VFR conditions with high clouds streaming across
the area. Surface winds from NW at 10 kt and brief gusts up to 20 kt
this afternoon...becoming very light and variable after 09/04Z.

&&

.MARINE...The winds have started to increase this afternoon south
of Cape Mendocino and this has brought waves up to 6 feet at buoy
46014. Winds are expected to continue to increase tonight and
Sunday. These will continue to increase to near gale or gale force
by Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds are expected to be in
the southern waters. The gale force winds are expected to mainly
be in the expansion fan south of Cape Mendocino. The NW wave of 4
feet at 11 seconds is expected to continue to slowly diminish
tonight. A new mid period wave is expected to start building in
tonight. This will build to around 6 to 8 feet at 14 seconds on
Sunday.

Winds are expected to remain moderate to near gale for Monday and
Tuesday with the strongest winds in the southern waters. Wednesday
winds look to increase and more widespread gales are possible. The
northwest swell is expected to gradually decrease into next week.
Tuesday another swell is expected to start to build into the
waters at about 15 seconds and build to 4 feet. MKK

&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT
     Monday for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png