768
FXUS66 KEKA 072244
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
344 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will begin to ease today with seasonable
conditions persisting through the weekend. Above normal temperatures
will return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough is approaching the area. This
is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler in much of the area,
especially Mendocino and Lake counties. The exception is the
coastal areas where abundant sunshine has allowed temperatures to
warm to around 60. Stratus is starting to form along the Mendocino
coast, although it is sort of ragged at this time. The HREF is
showing this stratus spreading across much of the coastal areas
later tonight. The marine layer is fairly shallow at the ACV
profiler, but has started to deepen at the Bodega Bay profiler and
is nearly 2000 feet this afternoon. Inland CU has started to
develop over the mountains of Trinity county. The CAMS are showing
some light showers or thunderstorms developing mainly over the
higher terrain north of Hwy 299 this afternoon or evening.
Confidence is low on the coverage. There is a lot of dry air near
the surface so storms will be high based and may contain some
gusty winds if any storms develop.

Saturday temperatures inland will be cooler than today, likely
around 90 degrees which is near the seasonal normals in the warmer
valleys. The marine clouds may take their time to clear in the
morning at the coast, but the cooler air aloft should weaken the
inversion and expect they will finally clear. There is a small
chance again for thunderstorms again Saturday afternoon in far
northern Trinity county. Saturday night into Sunday the upper
level trough starts to move out of the area and high pressure
starts to build back in. This will increase winds, especially
along the coast. This may help keep the skies mostly clear
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Inland temperatures in the
afternoon will be similar to Saturday, although coastal areas may
see some warming with the increased sunshine.

High pressure builds in briefly on Monday warming temperatures
into the mid 90s in the warmer valleys. These are expected to
persist on Tuesday and possible into Wednesday. Later in the week
the ensembles are showing more zonal flow with the ridge axis
centered east of the area. This will keep temperatures cooler and
closer to seasonal normals. Probability of temperatures over 100
significantly drop off on Thursday with eastern valleys of Trinity
and Lake counties seeing a 20 to 40 percent chance of exceeding
100. Areas farther west such as Ukiah will see even lower
probabilities of exceeding 100. MKK

&&

.AVIATION...Along the Coast, pockets of morning fog lowered
conditions into MVFR/IFR especially at CEC. Also, Patchy MVFR haze
also developed along the Humboldt-Del Norte Coast. Otherwise, the
region remained under VFR conditions, except near FT Bragg where
a swathe of marine stratus/fog developed near midday. Also, a
shift to south winds caused patchy stratus to move over CEC
(according ASOS)in the middle afternoon. Vis SAT picture showed a
1 pixel confirmation. However, a weather forecaster on the ground
reported sunny conditions. General aviation will have to deal with
the threat of isolated convection due to daylight heating and
lifting over Trinity. A weaker coastal pressure gradient will keep
winds gentle today. Some inland areas may experience a few
afternoon breezy winds. Tonight-Morning: Most model guidances are
in agreement that stratus/fog and patchy drizzle will impact the
coastal terminals while the interior remains SKC/Cirrus. /TA

&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds are continuing to diminish this
afternoon. There are also some southerly winds near the coast and
these may continue through tonight. Winds will remain higher in
the southern waters, but should still drop below 20 kt briefly
Saturday morning in most areas aside from the expansion fan south
of Cape Mendocino. The northwest swell is down to around 5 feet
at 11 seconds and is expected to continue to diminish slightly
over tonight and Saturday. There is also a 2 to 3 foot South
swell. This is expected to diminish over the next couple days.

Saturday night and Sunday winds are expected to increase once
again. At this point it looks like gales will be fairly localized.
Elevated winds are expected to continue through the middle of next
week with gales possible by mid-week. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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