105
AXPZ20 KNHC 261527
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is north of 04N along 83W through
western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is active north of 02N and east of 83W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W from 05N to 15N. It is
moving W at around 5 kt. No significant convection is evident
near the wave axis at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N105W to 11N115W to
12N125W to 08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is off the
coast of Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala north of
05N between 85W and 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak troughing persists well west of Baja California Norte, north
of 25N between 120W and 130W. This feature breaks up the
standard ridging pattern across the subtropics, leading mainly
light winds across the majority of the Mexican offshore waters.
The exception is off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, where fresh to
strong winds are pulsing currently, and will likely again
tonight. This is due to local drainage effects, but also the
displacement by the trough of relatively higher pressure
southward to along 20N. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open
waters with components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore
Cabo San Lucas tonight. Elsewhere a weak gradient over the area
will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Sun.
Broad low pressure may form over northern Central America and
southern Mexico late this week into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active over
the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This is due to
a combination of abundant deep layer moisture, diffluent flow
aloft, overnight coastal effects, and convergent low level winds
ahead of an approaching tropical wave. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds persist across waters north of the monsoon trough, with
mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW
swell.

For the forecast, broad low pressure over the western Caribbean
and Central America will support moderate to fresh SW winds off
southern Central America Thu into Fri, along with moderate to
rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak pressure pattern continues across the region,
characterized by weak troughing north of 20N, breaking up the
normal subtropical ridge across the region. This in turn is
resulting in gentle toe moderate winds and moderate combined
seas west of 110W. Recent buoy and scatterometer data showed
moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds across the waters east of
110W and south of the monsoon trough. This is in response to
lower pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean
ahead of a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean.

For the forecast, expect a slight increase in winds and seas east
of 110W south of the monsoon trough late this week into early
next week. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Konarik