Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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201 AXPZ20 KNHC 260832 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is north of 04N along 82W through western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active north of 02N and east of 80W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W from 05N to 15N. It is drifting westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N105W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N115W to 12N125W to 08N135W. The ITCZ extends from 08N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active off the coast of Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala north of 05N between 85W and 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak troughing persists well west of Baja California Norte, north of 25N between 120W and 130W. This feature breaks up the standard ridging pattern across the subtropics, leading mainly light winds across the majority of the Mexican offshore waters. The exception is off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, where fresh to strong winds are pulsing currently, and will likely again tonight. This is due to local drainage effects, but also the displacement by the trough of relatively higher pressure southward to along 20N. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight. Elsewhere a weak gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Sun. Broad low pressure may form over northern Central America and southern Mexico late this week into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This is due to a combination of abundant deep layer moisture, diffluent flow aloft, overnight coastal effects, and convergent low level winds ahead of an approaching tropical wave. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds persist across waters north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, broad low pressure over the western Caribbean and Central America will support moderate to fresh SW winds off southern Central America Thu into Fri, along with moderate to rough seas, and scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure pattern continues across the region, characterized by weak troughing north of 20N, breaking up the normal subtropical ridge across the region. This in turn is resulting in gentle toe moderate winds and moderate combined seas west of 110W. Recent buoy and scatterometer data showed moderate to occasionally fresh SW winds across the waters east of 110W and south of the monsoon trough. This is in response to lower pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean ahead of a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean. For the forecast, expect a slight increase in winds and seas east of 110W south of the monsoon trough late this week into early next week. Little change is expected elsewhere. $$ Christensen