Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
933 AXPZ20 KNHC 262120 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N90W to a 1009 mb low pressure situated near 10N115W to 06N133W. The ITCZ continues from 06N133W to beyond 06N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm on the W semicircle of the low center. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 102W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, including the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between broad ridging to the west and lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas remains in the 5 to 7 ft range with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are observed in the central Gulf of California while light to gentle winds prevail across the northern and southern parts of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present, primarily in SW swell. Medium concentration of smoke, due to agricultural fires, are still noted over SE Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the Baja California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro through at least mid-week. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds are expected, pulsing to moderate speeds across the north and central part of the Gulf at night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, seas conditions are forecast to deteriorate N of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches the area. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 9 ft with this swell event. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are evident across most of the offshore waters of central America and Colombia, with the exception of gentle to moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama based on recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate S to SW south are seen elsewhere, including the offshore waters of Ecuador. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Medium concentration of smoke is observed across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires onshore. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the next few days. Seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the forecast region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where moderate to fresh winds are blowing. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate most of the forecast area based on altimeter data. A low pressure of 1009 mb is along the monsoon trough near 10N115W generating some convective activity. Fresh to strong southerly winds are S of the monsoon trough/low, mainly between 115W and 119W. These winds are likely the result of the convection there. Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted. For the forecast, the high pressure, and associated ridge, will remain in place through the next several days. By mid-week, this system will strengthen some N of the area, bringing moderate to fresh winds across the trade wind zone, with seas building to 8 ft mainly W of 130W. $$ GR