933
AXPZ20 KNHC 262120
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N90W to a 1009 mb low
pressure situated near 10N115W to 06N133W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N133W to beyond 06N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 150 nm on the W semicircle of the
low center. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 102W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh NW
to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California,
including the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. These winds are the result
of the pressure gradient between broad ridging to the west and
lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas remains in the 5 to 7
ft range with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW
winds are observed in the central Gulf of California while light
to gentle winds prevail across the northern and southern parts of
the Gulf. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the
Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas
are present, primarily in SW swell. Medium concentration of
smoke, due to agricultural fires, are still noted over SE Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to
fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro
through at least mid-week. In the Gulf of California, light to
gentle winds are expected, pulsing to moderate speeds across the
north and central part of the Gulf at night. Light to gentle
winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy
conditions may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico.
Looking ahead, seas conditions are forecast to deteriorate N of
Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches
the area. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 9 ft with this swell
event.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are evident across most of the offshore
waters of central America and Colombia, with the exception of
gentle to moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama based on recent
scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate S to SW south are seen
elsewhere, including the offshore waters of Ecuador. Combined
seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos
Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop
in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Medium concentration of
smoke is observed across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to
gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light haze
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through the next few days. Seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range
most of the work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate
across the forecast region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Under the influence
of this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where moderate
to fresh winds are blowing. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate
most of the forecast area based on altimeter data.

A low pressure of 1009 mb is along the monsoon trough near 10N115W
generating some convective activity. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are S of the monsoon trough/low, mainly between 115W and
119W. These winds are likely the result of the convection there.
Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle to moderate
southerly winds are noted.

For the forecast, the high pressure, and associated ridge, will
remain in place through the next several days. By mid-week, this
system will strengthen some N of the area, bringing moderate to
fresh winds across the trade wind zone, with seas building to 8
ft mainly W of 130W.

$$
GR