437
AXPZ20 KNHC 092117
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 14N96W to 08N120W to
10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N
between 80W and 95W, and from 12N to 15N between 96W and 102W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N E of 80W to the
coast of Colombia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb located N of area near 36N135W extends
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting light to gentle NW winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft N of
Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate NW winds between Punta
Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are seen in the Gulf of California where
seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Light winds dominate the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Hazy conditions
persist off the Mexican coast south of the southern Gulf of
California all the way to the Tehuantepec region due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Light concentration of
smoke is noted is this area based on the latest smoke graphic
from SAB.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to
occasionally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft through the
middle of the week. Gentle to moderate winds are expected in the
Gulf of California, increasing to moderate to fresh speeds across
the central part of the Gulf Tue through Wed night as the
pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure
pressures over inland Mexico. At the same time, moderate to fresh
NW winds are likely between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro.
Hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico
will continue offshore of SW and southern Mexico for the next
couple of days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
climatological position for this time of the year, and this
pattern is forecast to persist through at least mid-week. This
results in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore
waters of Central America. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. Light
concentration of smoke is only noted in the offshore waters of
Guatemala and west part of El Salvador.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N,
while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of 10N
through tonight. On Mon, winds will begin to gradually increase S
of the monsoon trough, likely reaching fresh to strong speeds on
Wed, mainly from 06N to 11N between 90W and 105W. Seas are
forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft within these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N135W. This
system extends a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
115W producing mainly a gentle anticyclonic flow. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds are observed S of the ITCZ, particularly
from the Equator to about 06N and W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
for waters N of 20N, except 7 to 8 ft in Nw swell over the NW
corner of the forecast region.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while
strengthening somewhat by the middle of this week. The SW flow
south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase
to fresh to locally strong speeds on Wed, building seas to 9 or
10 ft.

$$
GR