034
AXPZ20 KNHC 082116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N100W to 09N126W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 03N to
08N east of 80W to the coast of Colombia, and from 09N to 16N
between 89W and 106W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gusty
winds to minimal gale force are noted within this convective
activity per scatterometer data.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb located NW of area near 38N139W extends
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate NW winds, with seas of 5 to 8 ft based on
altimeter data. Moderate to fresh winds are near Cabo San Lucas.
Gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas are present in the
Gulf of California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.
Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern
Mexico and Central America, reducing visibility to around 5 nm at
times.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft will continue off Baja California into the middle of
next week. Fresh to strong S to SW are expected in the northern
Gulf of California tonight, and again Sun night as a low pressure
develops there. Hazy conditions caused by smoke from agricultural
fires in Mexico will continue offshore of SW and southern Mexico
for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to near 5 nm at
times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
climatological position for this time of the year. This results
in gentle to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of
Central America. Light to gentle winds are evident in the Gulf
of Papagayo and in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Seas
are generally 4 to 6 ft. Hazy conditions persist over the
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 10N,
while gentle to moderate winds are expected south of 10N for the
next few days. By Mon, the southwesterly flow S of of the
monsoon trough is forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds,
building seas to 8 or 9 ft across the outer offshore forecast
waters of Central America. Meanwhile, hazy conditions caused by
smoke from agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities mainly over the northern Central American
offshore waters for the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a 1025 mb high pressure system is
centered near 38N139W. This system extends a ridge over the
forecast waters N of 15N and W of 115W producing mainly a light
to gentle anticyclonic flow. An area of moderate trades is noted
along the southern periphery of the ridge, roughly from 10N to
13N W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft for waters N of 20N. Mostly
moderate southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted south of
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate
seas are prevalent. A stationary front is clipping 30N140W.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while
strengthening somewhat by mid-week. The SW flow south of the
monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase to fresh to
strong speeds beginning on Mon, building seas to 8 or 9 ft. The
stationary front will remain near 30N140W through Sun while
weakening.

$$
GR