020
AXPZ20 KNHC 112047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1950 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N76W to 10.5N79W to 13N89W to
07N119W to 11N132W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 05N to 12N E of 91W and into the SW
Caribbean. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted from 06N to 14N between 91W and 100W, and from 06N to
10N between 100W and 109W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted within 60 nm of the trough W of 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge southeastward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports moderate
NW to N winds across the Baja offshore waters between Punta
Eugenia and the Revillagigedo Islands, and gentle NW winds to the
north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW
swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the southern
half of the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 2 to 3 ft
range, except to 4 ft at the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW
winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
except for moderate N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms persist across the waters south of 14N,
between Chiapas and Guerrero.

For the forecast, a broad ridge will dominate the Baja offshore
forecast waters through Thu, producing mainly moderate NW winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh winds near the coast during
the afternoon through late evening hours. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of
California, pulsing to fresh speeds across the central portions
this evening and Wed evening. High pressure across the northeast
Pacific will build into the local area Thu night and Fri and
yield an increase in winds across the offshore waters.
Thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Central America are
expected to begin to shift west and northwestward and into the
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southern Mexico through
Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
position for this time of year, and currently extends from
NW Nicaragua across the Pacific offshore waters along 13N to the
south of El Salvador and Guatemala. This pattern is forecast to
persist through the week, with the potential for the trough to
lift farther north and to the waters offshore of Tehuantepec late
in the week. The current trough position is resulting in gentle
to moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central
America north of 04N, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds
between the Galapagos Islands and southwestern Colombia. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except 3 to 4 ft inside the
Gulf of Panama. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the
regional offshore waters N of 05N, and extend across large
portions of Central America and into the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas and scattered
to numerous thunderstorms will dominate the region this week.
Low pressure is expected to develop across portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, the Bay of Campeche, and western portions of
Central America Wed and Thu. This will induce the monsoon trough
to lift farther northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
winds to the west of 90W increasing to fresh to locally strong,
leading to building seas of 7 to 10 ft. Look for thunderstorm
activity to also increase during this time. As the monsoon trough
lingers near the coast of Tehuantepec on Fri, fresh to strong SW
winds are expected to develop south of Panama and shift into the
Gulf of Panama Fri night and Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The NE Pacific ridge has reorganized today, and is now centered
on a 1030 mb high near 38N143W. The associated ridge persists
over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 115W, producing a
gentle to moderate N to NE wind flow north of the monsoon trough
and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are observed
S of the monsoon trough from the Equator to about 08N. Seas are 4
to 7 ft across the entire area in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters W of 120W throughout the week. The SW
flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to increase to
fresh to strong speeds late tonight into Thu between 90W and
110W, building seas to 8 to 10 ft, and forcing increasing
thunderstorm activity across that area.

$$
Stripling