852
AXPZ20 KNHC 101556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N81W to 12.5N92W to
08.5N123W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N123W to 10N135W to beyond
09.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
03.5N to 09N E of 87W, and from 06.5N to 11.5N between 98W and
109W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N to 14N between 88W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb located NW of area near 36N134W and extends
a ridge southeastward across the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California to well offshore of SW Mexico. This pattern
supports gentle NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and moderate NW
winds southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally
4 to 6 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia, and 5 to 7 ft to the
south. Mainly gentle southerly winds are seen in the Gulf of
California where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Gentle winds
dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly moderate NW
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft through mid-week. Occasionally
moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, increasing
to fresh speeds across the central part of the Gulf Tue night through
Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge
and lower pressure pressures over inland Mexico. At the same
time, fresh NW winds are likely between Punta Eugenia and Cabo
San Lazaro. Active thunderstorms across the offshore waters of
Central America are expected to begin to lift northward and into
the Tehuantepec area waters by Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual
climatological position for this time of the year, extending
across northern Costa Rica to along 11N to the south of
Guatemala. This pattern is forecast to persist throughout the
work week. This position is currently resulting in gentle to
moderate SW to W winds in the offshore waters of Central America,
and moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds between the Galapagos
Islands and southwestern Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft
in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the
regional offshore waters, and have become numerous this morning
between 91W and 97W.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 11N,
while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of 11N
today. By tonight, winds will begin to gradually increase S of
the monsoon trough, likely reaching fresh to locally strong
speeds by Wed night, mainly from 06N to 11N between 90W and 105W.
Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft during that time within
these winds. This strengthen monsoonal wind flow will also begin
to produce increasing thunderstorm activity across the outer
offshore waters that will begin to shift toward the coasts by
late Wed and potentially inland.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N134W and extends
a ridge over the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 112W,
producing a gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow.
Moderate SE to S winds are observed S of the ITCZ from the
Equator to about 06N and W of 130W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed S
and NW swell to the north of the Equator, and 6 to 7 ft in SW
swell to the south of 10N.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area while
strengthening somewhat by the middle of the week. The SW flow
south of the monsoon trough and E of 110W is forecast to increase
to fresh to locally strong speeds Wed night, building seas to 9
or 10 ft, and increasing thunderstorm activity there.

$$
Stripling