115
AXPZ20 KNHC 012031
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W, to the north of 04N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 07N to
15N. Active convection is expected to continue with this system
through the into early next week while it moves slowly westward,
and well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However, development
of this system appears unlikely.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N94W to 08N113W to
10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 91W and 110W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between
115W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region near 34N144W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate winds are noted in the
vicinity of the tropical wave south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the
discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in NW swell off
Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur.
Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf
of California. Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease
at times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California waters through early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open
waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are expected off of Baja
California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions, dense at times,
may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central
America.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of
Nicaragua to near 89W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail
S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range N of the
monsoon trough and 4-5 ft south of the monsoon trough. Hazy
conditions continues off the Central American coast due to
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region and most of Nicaragua waters through
early Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected for
the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused by
agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore
waters the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 34N144W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 25N
and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough. Seas of 6-8 ft in north to northeast swell
prevail across all but the far NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft
exist. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days. The active
convection along the monsoon trough will gradually shift
westward and weaken through the rest of the weekend.

$$
AL