914
AXPZ20 KNHC 050359
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 109W from 15N southward, and
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 12N between 108W and 116W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from northern Costa Rica
through 09N105W to 10N121W. An ITCZ continues westward from
10N121W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted near the trough from 05N to 13N between 86W
and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N
between 108W and 116W, and also near the ITCZ from 07N to 10N
between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered located W of area
near 31N145W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate northwesterly
winds within about 60-75 nm of the coast of Baja California, and
moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere across the offshore
forecast waters. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of
California and the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.
Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in NW swell off Baja California
Norte, and 5 to 7 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in southwest
swell. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California.
Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico
and Central America, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will continue
off Baja California Sur through this weekend, while winds near
Cabo San Lucas will pulse between fresh and strong during the
nighttime and early morning hours through Thursday night.
Elsewhere including the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail into early next week. Large to moderate NW
swell is going to cause rising seas off Baja California Thursday
and Friday. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico
will continue offshore of central and southern Mexico for the
next couple of days, reducing visibility to near 5 nm at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of the monsoon trough with
axis around 09N. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail S of
the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted
across the offshore forecast waters from Guatemala to Costa Rica
and in the Gulf of Panama. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in
long- period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions continue off the
northern Central American coast due to agricultural fires in
southern Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of
09N, while moderate to locally fresh winds are expected south of
09N for the next several days. Scattered storms are expected to
continue over the Central America offshore waters through
Thursday. Meanwhile, hazy conditions from smoke caused by
agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce
visibilities mainly over the northern Central American offshore
waters over the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb located W of area near 31N145W dominates
the region N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the
monsoon trough to 20N and W of 130W. Seas with these winds are
in the 8 to 9 ft range in N to NE swell. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough with seas of 6 to 8 ft in
north to northeast swell across all but the far NW waters, where
seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, seas over the trade wind zone in the western
waters will gradually subside through Wed. A new swell event will
reach the NW waters on Wed, and propagate across the area N of
25N on Thu, building seas to 8 to 11 ft between 120W and 130W.
Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft late on Fri.

$$

Chan