887
AXPZ20 KNHC 242121
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica/Nicaragua border
to 12N95W to a 1010 mb low pres near 12N111W to 08N119W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N119W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and
100W, from 05N to 12N between 100W and 110W, and from 06N to 09N
W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1034 mb is located NW of the forecast area. Its
associated ridge covers the forecast waters north of 15N and
west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressure over central Mexico is supporting moderate to
locally fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore
waters where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range due to NW swell.
Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted over the
northern Gulf of California, while mainly light and variable
winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf as noted on recent
scatterometer pass. Seas are 2 to 3 ft at the entrance of the
Gulf of California and northern of 30N, with seas to 2 ft across
the rest of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore
waters, light to gentle winds persist. Seas range 4 to 6 ft along
the southern Mexico offshore waters in mixed NW and SW swell.
Light concentration of smoke due to agricultural fires is noted
across areas from the southern Gulf of California and southern
Baja California offshore waters to the Chiapas region. This could
reduce visibilities at times.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are
expected, building to 5 to 7 ft, mainly S of Punta Eugenia, Sat
night into Sun. Winds in the northern Gulf of California will
pulse to strong tonight as low pressure temporarily deepens over
the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
over the remainder of the Gulf of California through Sun.
Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle
winds are forecast with seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the Central
America offshore waters and Colombia. This convective activity is
related to the monsoon trough with axis along 10N-11N. Some
storms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally
rough seas. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon
trough while light and variable winds are north of it. Combined
seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Light concentration of smoke due
to agricultural fires is noted across northern Central America
offshore forecast waters. This could reduce visibilities at
times.

For the forecast, abundant moisture, in a SW wind flow, will
continue to enhance the development of showers and thunderstorms
over the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia through the
upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist
S of the monsoon trough with axis along 10N-11N while light to
gentle winds are expected N of it through at least Sun. Light
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near
12N111W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this
low, particularly on the SE semicircle. Combined seas in this
area are 5 to 6 ft.

As previously mentioned, high pressure of 1034 mb located NW of
the forecast region extends a ridge across the forecast waters
north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern is supporting
moderate to fresh trades north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west
of 130W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted per scatterometer data from
06N to 15N W of 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken some through the
weekend, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly.
This will continue through early next week before the high
pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the
remainder of the area.

$$
GR