126
AXPZ20 KNHC 251922
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W reaching southward from
the Oaxaca, Mexico, to near 05N. It is moving westward at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 14N between
92W and 99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N107W to 08N139W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 12N E of
92W, from 10N to 12N between 106W and 117W, and from 06N to 12N
between 123W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a trough W of Baja California and
higher pressure in the subtropics is leading to fresh NW winds
offshore Cabo San Lucas. This weak trough, which extends from
30N123W to 22N132W, breaks up the standard ridging pattern over
parts of the tropics, leading mainly light winds across the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. A tropical wave
extending south from Oaxaca is leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in an south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Combined
seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with components of NW and SW
swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore
Cabo San Lucas tonight and Wed night. Elsewhere a weak gradient
over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and
moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through
Sat. Broad low pressure may form over northern Central America
and southern Mexico late this week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Showers and thunderstorms are increasing offshore Panama in
associated with an approaching western Caribbean tropical wave.
Light to gentle winds persist across waters N of the monsoon
trough, with mainly moderate SW winds to the S. Seas are 4 to 6
ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate wave heights. Broad low pressure is likely to
form over northern Central America late this week, drawing in
increasing SW winds offshore Panama and Costa Rica.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1022 mb high pressure at 39N134W
dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft
in mixed swell. Light to gentle winds prevail, except moderate
SW winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 100W. Expect fresh
winds near the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W by Wed
associated with a weak trough, otherwise little change is
expected into late week.

$$
Konarik