432
AXPZ20 KNHC 272116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N103W to 1010 mb low
pressure near 11N116W to 08N126W. The ITCZ continues from 08N126W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen N of 02N and E of 83W to the coast of Colombia, including
the Gulf of Panama. Similar convective activity can be found
from 05N to 09N between 90W and 105W, and from 07N to 11N between
108W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds persist off Baja California
between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over
central Mexico. The most recent altimeter satellite pass
indicated 4 to 6 ft combined seas off Baja California. Light to
gentle winds and moderate seas, in primarily SW swell, persist
elsewhere outside the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will
continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate
seas off Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into
mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell
will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead,
expect building seas with the arrival of long period NW swell
beyond 90 nm off Baja California from late Wed through Fri, with
seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of gentle to
moderate NE to E winds across the Papagayo region, and the
offshore waters of Nicaragua to about 88W. Light to gentle winds
are evident elsewhere across the offshore waters of Central
America while gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the
waters of Colombia and Ecuador. Mainly light winds surrounds the
Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft in SW swell.
Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are noted east of
83W affecting the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Winds
and seas could be higher near tstms.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E are expected in the
Papagayo region through Thu, increasing to moderate to fresh
speeds Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW
winds will persist south of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N
while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri.
Combined seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the
work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the
forecast region. Light haze from smoke caused by agricultural
fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over portions of the
Central America offshore waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across most of
the waters north of 10N and west of 110W. Under the influence of
this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is
noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where moderate
to fresh winds are blowing. S of the monsoon trough, mainly
gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail. Combined seas of 5 to
7 ft dominate most of the forecast area based on altimeter data.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place north of 10N and
west of 110W through the next several days. By mid-week, this
system will strengthen some north of the area, bringing fresh to
locally strong winds across the trade wind zone, with seas
building to 8 ft mainly west of 130W.

$$
GR